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NY Crude Oil Futures - In Breakout Mode »» Daily Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | September 19, 2020

The NY Crude Oil Futures closing today at 4111 is immediately trading down about 32% for the year from last year's settlement of 6106. Up to this moment in time, this market has been rising for 4 months going into September suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level. As we stand right now, this market has made a new low breaking beneath the previous month's low reaching thus far 3613 yet it is trading below last month's close of 4261.

The NY Crude Oil Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2016 moving into 2020. Distinctly, we have elected two Bullish Reversals to date. Currently, the market has dropped back and is trading beneath the previous year's close warning of a potential correction in play. This is especially true since we are facing an outside reversal to the downside by penetrating the previous year's low as well.

From a perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Crude Oil Futures, this market remains neutral with resistance standing at 4123 and support forming below at 3857. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of August 24th at 4378, which was up 18 weeks from the low made back during the week of April 20th. This was a key week for at least a temporary high. We have been generally trading up for the past week from the low of the week of September 7th, which has been a move of .1353%.

Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see a correction from the key high of January for three months. Since that low made in April, the market has rallied for 4 months. Meanwhile, the past four months has witnessed a rally of 555% percent. A month-end closing below 3958 will warn that the market is losing its upward momentum and should retest support below. It will take generally a monthly closing above 4378 to maintain a near-term upward rally.

Some caution is necessary since the last high 6565 was important given we did obtain four sell signals from that event established during January. That high was still lower than the previous high established at 6660 back during April 2019. This warns that the trend is weak moving forward. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak trading beneath last month's low.

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