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NY Natural Gas Futures (NG) - Entering in Breakout Mode »» Daily Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | August 22, 2020

NY Natural Gas Futures closed today at 2448 and is trading up about 11% for the year from last year's settlement of 2189. At present, this market has been rising for this month going into August reflecting that this has been only still a bullish reactionary trend. while it is still trading above last month's high of 1937.

Up to now, we still have only a 1 month reaction rally from the low established during June. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply a trend is developing.

The NY Natural Gas Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2019 moving into 2020. Distinctly, we have not elected any Bullish Reversals to date.

From a perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Natural Gas Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 2306 and overhead resistance forming above at 2465. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of August 17th at 2468, which was up 8 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 22nd. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 2468 to 2280. Nevertheless, the market is still trading upward more toward resistance than support. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.

The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of August 17th reaching 2468 has exceeded the previous high of 2162 made back during the week of May 4th. Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 20 weeks overall.

Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see a correction from the key high of November 2019 for seven months. Since that low made in June, the market has rallied for 1 month. Meanwhile, the past month has witnessed a rally of 18% percent. A month-end closing below 1605 will warn that the market is losing its upward momentum and should retest support below. It will take generally a monthly closing above 1937 to maintain a near-term upward rally.

This market is trading well beneath that high of November 2019 which was 2905 by more than 10 percent. This warns that the trend is weak moving forward. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak.

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