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Re: DiscoverGold post# 32300

Saturday, 08/08/2020 9:55:29 AM

Saturday, August 08, 2020 9:55:29 AM

Post# of 54865
Russell 2000 Index (RUT) - New Pattern Forming »» Daily Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | August 8, 2020

Russel 2000 Index Cash closed above our indicating ranges on the Daily level. The market closing today at 156918 is immediately trading down about 5.95% for the year from last year's settlement of 166847. This price action here in August is reflecting that this is within the scope of a bearish reactionary move on the monthly level thus far. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 156926 intraday and is still trading above that high of 150724.


Up to now, we still have only a 1 month reaction decline from the high established during June. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply a trend is developing.

The Russel 2000 Index Cash opened within last year's trading range which was 168168 to 132518. Right now, the market is still trading within last year's range with the last print at 156918. The last time such a similar pattern took place was 2018. Nonetheless, the market is trading below the opening print for the year which was at 167590. As long as this market remains trading above 134065 yet below the opening print on a closing basis, then a similar year-end closing in this posture will warn that we could have a knee-jerk low in place this year.

DAILY TIMING ARRAY PERSPECTIVE

On the Daily Level, timing Models are always critical and there was a chance of a decline moving into Fri. 7th with the opposite trend thereafter into Tue. 11th.

PIVOT POINTS

Looking at our Pivot Points, the market is trading above one indicating pivot implying that this market is in a positive position with support at 154695 and resistance at 159006 and 159182 for this next trading session.

DAILY PIVOT POINTS
159006
159182
154695

Projected technical Support tomorrow lies at 154943 and 155140. Naturally, opening below this area will cause it to become resistance. Projected technical Resistance stands tomorrow at 157806 157917. Opening above this area will cause it to become support.

NEAR-TERM OVERVIEW

The Russel 2000 Index Cash has been in an uptrend for the past 5 days closing above the previous session's high quite significantly by 1.20%. The broader rally has unfolded over the past 39 days. Currently, the market is trading bullish above all four indicators but it is trading strongly higher up some 2.06% from the previous session low. Our projected target closing resistance for the next session stands at 159158, we need to close above that target to imply a further advance. Failure to even exceed this intraday warns that the upward momentum is starting to decline. Nevertheless, this session closed below our projection closing resistance warning that the market which stood at 157368 is approaching a high. Our Stochastics are all pointing upward while our internal momentum models have also remained in a bullish posture.

This market has been making higher highs showing there has been near-term strength.

Bear in mind that we have made a new high this week changing the Weekly Bearish Reversals once this week is concluded. However, we have also made a new monthly high exceeding the previous month's high reaching 156926 which also means the immediate Monthly Bearish Reversals will change once this month is concluded.

Immediately, the market remains unchanged within support still above our system indicators while the long-term trend and cyclical strength are bullish.

This market is also trading above the bank of eight moving average indicators also suggesting it is still above underlying support at this moment. The short-term Stochastics are bullish but nearing a temporary overbought position soon on the horizon. However, an opening BELOW 155439 in the next session would warn that the high of this session may stand at least temporarily.

We did close below the previous session's Intraday Projected Breakout Resistance indicator which was 156348 settling at 154462 gesturing that the market is not in a breakout mode at that precise moment. The current Projected Breakout Resistance for this session was 156430 which we have now closed above suggesting the market is starting to possibly breakout to the upside if it can be maintain in the next trading session. The Projected Breakout Resistance indicator for the next session will be 158408. Normally, when you open back below this resistance number or closed back below it then the rally is losing momentum. So, watch this number which is dynamic for it changes with each session.

Intraday Projected Breakout Resistance
Today...... 156430
Previous... 156348
Tomorrow... 158408

HYPOTHETICAL MODEL ANALYSIS

Hypothetical Models, we see that we have Daily Bearish Reversals that would be generated if we see another new high penetrating 156926. These hypothetical Tentative Bearish Reversals would rest at 140219, 146471, 147137, and 150159, whereas a close below the previous low 153952 would tend to suggest that these Tentative Reversals will then become fixed as long as the high holds thereafter for at least several days. Moreover, the election of any of these Tentative Bearish Reversals during this next session would signal a decline is unfolding and that such a high may stand. However, if we continue to make new highs, then these Tentative Reversals will be replaced by a new set until the high becomes fixed.

Hypothetical Models, we see that we have Weekly Bearish Reversals that would be generated if we see another new high penetrating 156926. These hypothetical Tentative Bearish Reversals would rest at 117391, 134370, 139400, and 141727, whereas a close below the previous low 148337 would tend to suggest that these Tentative Reversals will then become fixed as long as the high holds thereafter for at least several days. Moreover, the election of any of these Tentative Bearish Reversals during this next session would signal a decline is unfolding and that such a high may stand. However, if we continue to make new highs, then these Tentative Reversals will be replaced by a new set until the high becomes fixed.

Hypothetical Models, we see that we have Monthly Bearish Reversals that would be generated if we see another new high penetrating 150724. These hypothetical Tentative Bearish Reversals would rest at-163105,-149436,-146221, and 96621, whereas a close below the previous low 138410 would tend to suggest that these Tentative Reversals will then become fixed as long as the high holds thereafter for at least several days. Moreover, the election of any of these Tentative Bearish Reversals during this next session would signal a decline is unfolding and that such a high may stand. However, if we continue to make new highs, then these Tentative Reversals will be replaced by a new set until the high becomes fixed.

REVERSAL SYSTEM

Utilizing our Reversal System, our next Daily Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 163312 while the Daily Bearish Reversal lies at 148336. This provides a very near-term 11% trading range. Using the Weekly level, the next Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 163478 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 144820. This provides a 11% trading range. Now moving to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 158618 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 110257. This, naturally, gives us the main broad trading range of a 30%.

REVERSAL MAP SYSTEM
-- DAILY -- | -- WEEKLY -- | - MONTHLY - |

174300 | 3 | 174300 | 1 | 174300 | 1 |
173346 | 2 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
172439 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
172382 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
172263 | 2 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
172230 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
172022 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
171590 | 1 | 171590 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
170618 | 1 | 170857 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
169518 | 1 | 169546 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
168918 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
168739 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
167666 | 1 | 167666 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
166120 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
163312 | 1 | 163478 | 1 | 163478 | 1 |
----------------------------------------
148336 | 1 | ....... | 0 | 158618 | 1 |
146954 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
146470 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
146007 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
143645 | 1 | 144820 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
142854 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
142364 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
141423 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
140305 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
140097 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
138400 | 1 | 138400 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
137430 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
137270 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
134938 | 2 | 134938 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
133398 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
130726 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
126255 | 2 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |

WIDE-RANGING CLOSING TREND CHANGE POINTS

Change in Trend Indicator
Daily ........ 152028
Weekly ....... 143760
Monthly ...... 118669
Quarterly .... 129292
Yearly ....... 118169

Note: Negative means the market is trading below that level on a closing basis. The broader change in trend takes place only on the monthly to yearly levels. Those looking for exit strategies may look at these numbers on a closing basis per level.

As of now, we have exceeded last month's high so we have therefore generated a new What If Monthly Bearish Reversal which lies below the present trading level at the general area of 103538 and a month end closing beneath this level will be a sell signal for now.

Currently, we have broken below last month's low and that means we have generated a new What-If Monthly Bullish Reversal which lies above the present trading level at the general area of 594604 warning that this decline has still not punched through important overhead resistance. A monthly closing beneath this level will keep this market in a bearish tone.

We closed the previous month at 144137 after making a new high up three months from the low established back in June during 2020 at 153974. Immediately, the market is somewhat bearish on our monthly indicating range models as was the case last month.

BROADER OVERVIEW

The historical perspective in the Russel 2000 Index Cash included a rally from 2002 moving into a major high for 2018, the market has been consolidating since the major high with the last significant reaction low established back in 2002. The market has penetrated last year's low. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2013 which signaled the rally would continue into 2018.

On a broader perspective, this market remains in a positive posture on the yearly level while the quarterly level remains neutral on our indicating models. Still, it remains below key resistance on the quarterly level. This implies that the high established back in 2018 still remains important resistance. Immediately, it remains in a positive position on the weekly level but negative on the monthly level at this moment.

This past year alone, saw a significant price drop of about 23%.

RISK FACTORS
Russel 2000 Index Cash Risk Table

----------------- UPSIDE RISK ----- DOWNSIDE RISK ---

DAILY......... 163312 | 4.074% | 148336 | 5.469% |
WEEKLY........ 163478 | 4.18% | 144820 | 7.709% |
MONTHLY....... 158618 | 1.083% | 110257 | 29.73% |
QUARTERLY..... 160220 | 2.104% | 113170 | 27.87% |
YEARLY........ 0 | 86.21% | 104046 | 0.28% |

DAILY TECHNICAL OVERVIEW

After the historical high was established during 2018, a major low was created on 03/18/2020 at 96622 which was 102 days from that major high. The Uptrend line resides at 97308 providing the technical underlying support. The top of the Uptrend Channel stands at 109472 which we have exceeded at this point in time.

Meanwhile, the Downtrend Line from that major high of 2018 to the subsequent reaction high of 172600 formed 10 days thereafter resides at 92794. This line has provided technical support which the market has been trading above. Given the fact that the market is trading well above that technical indicator implies that any potential support would be during a short-term panic sell off. The post high low was established at 96622. We have not elected any Bullish Reversals from that important post high low on the daily level.

The more recent Downtrend Line constructed from the last high of 153762 to the subsequent reaction high of 147375 stands at 105860 while drawing a channel provides us with support at 83007. A break of this support with a closing below it will suggest a correction is unfolding. However, an intraday penetration of this support with a close back above would suggest that market could pause briefly.

Looking at our Energy Models, the fact that the market is making new intraday highs in price and our Energy Models are declining, this warns of a divergence, which has been going on for the past day. Therefore, this immediate rally may prove to be unsustainable when such a divergence appears.

OVERALL TREND

The Russel 2000 Index Cash is in bearish position on the quarterly short-term level of our model while the broader term is neutral to bullish implying that the long-term bull market is still holding. The Russel 2000 Index Cash is in a neutral position on the monthly short-term level of our momentum model yet bearish on the monthly trend while the broader term is also neutral to bearish. Looking at the weekly short-term level, this market is still bullish on our momentum and trend indicatorswhile the broader term is neutral to bullish. Focusing on the daily level, this market is in an immediate bullish position. Overall, the posture is generally bullish for now.



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