Market Direction and Stock Trends

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NASDAQ Composite Index (COMP) - Temp High »» Daily Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | August 8, 2020

NASDAQ Composite Index Cash closed above our indicating ranges on the Daily level. It closed today at 1101098 and is trading up about 22% for the year from last year's settlement of 897260. Up to this moment in time, this market has been rising for 4 months going into August suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level which has been confirmed by electing all of our model's long-term Bullish Reversals from the key low. while it is still trading above last month's high of 1083993.


DAILY TIMING ARRAY PERSPECTIVE

On the Daily Level, our Forecast Array suggests that there was a practical likelihood of a Outside Reversal to the downside was Fri. 7th with the opposite trend thereafter into Wed. 12th. decline moving into today was Fri. 7th with the opposite trend thereafter into Wed. 12th. We have overall 2 Daily Directional Change targets ahead and 1 that also aligns with a main turning points on the top line of the Array. This target in time is Thu. 13th. Directional Change targets that align with the top line for turning points often unfold as the main cyclical events. Don't forget, a Directional Change can also be a sharp dramatic move in the same direction, not just a change in direction.

PIVOT POINTS

Looking at our Pivot Points, the market is trading above one indicating pivot implying that this market is in a positive position with support at 1092755 and resistance at 1104867 and 1121708 for this next trading session.

DAILY PIVOT POINTS
1104867
1121708
1092755

Projected technical Support tomorrow lies at 1098892. Naturally, opening below this area will cause it to become resistance. Projected technical Resistance stands tomorrow at, 1103149, 1109304, and 1119459. Opening above this area will cause it to become support.

NEAR-TERM OVERVIEW

The market opened lower and closed lower making it an outside reversal to the downside as it exceeded the previous high and penetrated the previous low yet closed within that previous trading range. Our projected support for tomorrow's closing lies at 1091319. Therefore, this closed below the opening print as well as beneath the previous closing yet it was quite weak going into the close. Moreover, it is also losing the upward momentum warning we may be forming a temporary high. Electing a Daily Bearish Reversal from this highs would tend to confirm that outcome and the protective stop would naturally be initially placed above today's high.

Clearly, this market is still above the critical support point at this time, which lies at 1067100. Initial support lies at 1097087. This market has exceeded intraday 2 of three projected resistance points and it has closed below 2 others. Our underlying pivot providing some support lies at 1091319 and a close below this level will warn of a shift to retest support. At the moment, the projected extreme resistance stands at 1130813.

Additionally, our central point cyclical study models also ended in a bearish mode for the closing warning that the upward momentum is subsiding. Given the fact that we have made a new high and this study just turned down today, caution is advised that this may prove to be a temporary high and a break of today's low of 1092037 would tend to confirm that possibility. Furthermore, the shor-term Stochastics have also signaled a possible crash is likely. The Secondary Intraday Crash Mode technical support lies at 947485 which we are trading above at this time. A breach of this level with a closing below will signal a sharp decline is possible.

Intraday Projected Crash Mode Points
Today...... 1097370
Previous... 1095315
Tomorrow... 1092655

We did close above the previous session's Projected Technical Resistance indicator on Thu. 6th which was 1107503 settling previous at 1110807. However, after make a higher high, we have since created an outside reversal to the downside and our Crash Point for this session was 1097370 which we did close above. Our projected breakout resistance is well above the market by 1.68% standing at 1119923. We do see our Crash Point for tomorrow will be 1092655 which is still below the market basis this session's close of 1101098. However, the Projected Breakout Resistance indicator for the next session will be 1119676, which is still above the current closing. While an open back above this pivot number or closing back above it signals the rally may resume, and open below this number will warn that a mere penetration of 1092037 and a closing beneath this pivot point will imply the market will head lower to retest support.

Intraday Projected Breakout Resistance
Today...... 1119923
Previous... 1107503
Tomorrow... 1119676

HYPOTHETICAL MODEL ANALYSIS

Hypothetical Models, we see that we have Daily Bearish Reversals that would be generated if we see another new high penetrating 1112604. These hypothetical Tentative Bearish Reversals would rest at 1035097, 1042122, 1046500, and 1085300, whereas a close below the previous low 1092037 would tend to suggest that these Tentative Reversals will then become fixed as long as the high holds thereafter for at least several days. Moreover, the election of any of these Tentative Bearish Reversals during this next session would signal a decline is unfolding and that such a high may stand. However, if we continue to make new highs, then these Tentative Reversals will be replaced by a new set until the high becomes fixed.

Hypothetical Models, we see that we have Weekly Bearish Reversals that would be generated if we see another new high penetrating 1112604. These hypothetical Tentative Bearish Reversals would rest at 821569, 837513, 940400, and 1018247, whereas a close below the previous low 1083115 would tend to suggest that these Tentative Reversals will then become fixed as long as the high holds thereafter for at least several days. Moreover, the election of any of these Tentative Bearish Reversals during this next session would signal a decline is unfolding and that such a high may stand. However, if we continue to make new highs, then these Tentative Reversals will be replaced by a new set until the high becomes fixed.

Hypothetical Models, we see that we have Monthly Bearish Reversals that would be generated if we see another new high penetrating 1083993. These hypothetical Tentative Bearish Reversals would rest at 728811, 777710, 787393, and 843550, whereas a close below the previous low 1004804 would tend to suggest that these Tentative Reversals will then become fixed as long as the high holds thereafter for at least several days. Moreover, the election of any of these Tentative Bearish Reversals during this next session would signal a decline is unfolding and that such a high may stand. However, if we continue to make new highs, then these Tentative Reversals will be replaced by a new set until the high becomes fixed.


REVERSAL MAP SYSTEM
-- DAILY -- | -- WEEKLY -- | - MONTHLY - |

----------------------------------------
1083114 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
1048803 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
1041208 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
1033797 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
1019405 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
1018245 | 1 | 1018245 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
1004803 | 2 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
984221 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
974837 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
956040 | 2 | 966360 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
940290 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
923940 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
915434 | 1 | 918854 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
882137 | 1 | 914427 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
881936 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |

WIDE-RANGING CLOSING TREND CHANGE POINTS

Change in Trend Indicator
Daily ........ 1092001
Weekly ....... 1026588
Monthly ...... 840965
Quarterly .... 733144
Yearly ....... 526597

Note: Negative means the market is trading below that level on a closing basis. The broader change in trend takes place only on the monthly to yearly levels. Those looking for exit strategies may look at these numbers on a closing basis per level.

Up to this moment in time, we have exceeded last month's high so we have therefore generated a new What If Monthly Bearish Reversal which lies below the present trading level at the general area of 728811 and a month end closing beneath this level will be a sell signal for now.

Up to this moment in time, we have broken below last month's low and that means we have generated a new What-If Monthly Bullish Reversal which lies below the present trading level at the general area of 18302 and a month end closing above this level will be a buy signal for now.

We closed the previous month at 1005877 after making a new high up three months from the low established back in June during 2020 at 907032. Currently, this market is still in a bullish posture above all our monthly indicating ranges. .

BROADER OVERVIEW

The NASDAQ Composite Index Cash has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2009 moving into 2020, which has been a run of 11 years warning that timing wise a pause remains possible. .

This market is still what we classify as a Bull Market given its strong posture above our Weekly to Yearly indicating models.

This past year alone, saw a significant price drop of about 20%.

RISK FACTORS
NASDAQ Composite Index Cash Risk Table

----------------- UPSIDE RISK ----- DOWNSIDE RISK ---

DAILY......... 0 | 2.521% | 1083114 | 2.049% |
WEEKLY........ 0 | 3.622% | 1018245 | 6.215% |
MONTHLY....... 0 | 0.553% | 826415 | 14.02% |
QUARTERLY..... 0 | 8.598% | 766280 | 19.17% |
YEARLY........ 0 | 58.64% | 420975 | 10.04% |

DAILY TECHNICAL OVERVIEW

The market scored a new major high today but this has been a dramatic outside reversal to the downside leaving the last day as the highest close cyclically speaking. The technical Uptrend Line drawn from the key low established back on 07/24/2020 at 1021731 and the next reaction low forged on 08/07/2020 at 1092037 currently resides at 1099067. We are immediately trading above this Uptrend Line as it is providing some technical support. However, an opening below this level will warn of a break to the downside. This would become a possibility with a lower opening. It would tend to be a likely potential on a break of this session's low of 1092037. The Uptrend Channel range is 1119635 to 1099067. Currently, the market is trading within this technical channel.

Turning to our Energy Models, the fact that the market is making new intraday highs in price and our Energy Models are declining, this warns of a divergence, which has been going on for the past 2 days. Therefore, this immediate rally may prove to be unsustainable when such a divergence appears.

OVERALL TREND

The NASDAQ Composite Index Cash is obviously in a full-blown bull market on the weekly to yearly levels of our model. Overall, the posture is quite bullish right now on the long-term perspective. Long-Term trend changes only when we elect monthly sell signals.

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