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Ombow, Well it's getting down to crunch

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gfp927z   Wednesday, 07/15/20 11:25:07 AM
Re: ombowstring post# 17573
Post # of 18010 
Ombow, Well it's getting down to crunch time for CYDY. Based on the recent conference call, it sounds like they should be locking the database near the end of this week, which will give the weekend to do the data analysis, so a press release Monday or Tuesday seems likely, though it could slip a bit. Lots of investor money is riding on this data.

I know you plan to stay long through the event, but this weekend will be the most dangerous time to be long. Traditionally, bad results are announced after the close on a Friday, and good results before the open on Monday, but in CYDY's case it sounds like the results, good or bad, will be next week.

One saving grace is that the severe trial results are still to come, so that will keep some interest in the stock even if the mild/mod trial bombs. CYDY has demonstrated its relative inexperience with the various snafus over the HIV BLA filing, but hopefully their Covid trials ran smoothly. Listening to their presentation, the clinical guy seemed pretty sharp.

I hadn't realized that with the HIV filing, the FDA permitted CYDY to extrapolate some of the high dose data (700 mg) from a previous trial, which is very unusual.

I only own 2 shares of CYDY (which is laughable), but still get nervous over these binary events. I've seen so many weird things happen. The worst is when they unexpectedly announce results (bad) early. One of the few times I actually owned a decent size position and planned to hold it through the binary event, the results were due Monday, but I chickened out and sold 5 minutes before the close on Friday. Then a few minutes later after the close they announced bad results. Luckily I dodged that one (barely), and decided to never hold a big position through a binary event, ever. Maybe a small token or core position, but never a big position.

I'll never forget that close call, I sold at $7 and five minutes later the market closed and the stock crashed to under $1 in the aftermarket, and even lower on Monday morning. It was a 'near death experience', and lots of people on the chatroom board (I think it was Raging Bull), went down in mega flames, never to be heard from again.

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