Avita Medical Ltd (RCEL)

[jugs]

Ameritrade is showing $25.01 at 6am Central.

Last week I thought we might drop to $25. However, when I awakened at 4:am (C)this morning, a sixth sense or something warned me that we'd be dropping to $24.53. Opening up my brokerage account, I then saw the $25.01. I have no idea where the $24.53 comes from but I'm listening to it and am scaling down my near-term expectations accordingly.

Because I've traded RCEL numerous times in the past, my cost basis reflects it and it has me on high alert, wanting to pretty it up when and if I can. That has me very cautious. To wit:

I may buy 100 shares or so at $25 but won't launch into larger scale buys until I have reason to think we're bottoming. As you (Fmello) point out, we prolly should NOT be seeing a massive drop in Australia. But the fact is that we are seeing it.

The BARDA support is wonderful as we all know. And it will mean much for Avita going forward. Right now, though, the world is aglow with pressures coming at us from all angles. That has me thinking that something occurring to me many years ago continues to have merit:

"When in doubt, DON'T!"

It's important to continue doubting ourselves, even when we think we're onto something. In simple-speak, this means that we'd possibly be best served by not assuming logic will be of greatest value. This may be a moment when we'd better watch out for the devil lurking in axioms and mantras.

We know we've got a great company and we've done well for ourselves. That doesn't mean the share price will always reflect it, even with that sizable BARDA commitment.

More later as things develop. It's too early for me to set up buy orders as I need a sense as to how the market is looking at RCEL.