I agree with all of this but you need to assign a factor. It's not 2 to 1 or 66 33 its 70 30. So you need to multiply the treatment arm by .42 for apples to apples comparison
It is not 70/30 because I am not comparing the total 232 Treatment patients to the 99 SOC patients.
I am estimating the probability of post 36(+) months survival separately for several groups of patients based on the estimated or known number of patients in each group and on DR. Liau's comment that most of those long livers arrived at the 36th months timeline with their PFS status intact. That means of course that a minority of the patients who survived 36 months had already progressed.
So let me try again in a different way.
Here are the known number and my estimated number of patients in the four groups as well as my estimate of post 36(+) months survivors:
1. 52 post 36 months surviving Treatment patients who did not progress
before the 36 months timeline.
2. 176 Treatment patients who progressed before 36 months. However, I
am estimating that 26 of that large group (14.8%) survived 36
months. (The 56 and 176 numbers are estimated from the 232
3. 66 SOC who crossed over of whom almost all progressed before 36
months but 7 of that group (10.6%) managed to outlive 36 months
even though they received DCVax-L late (after progression).
4. 33 SOC patients who never crossed over. This group contains perhaps
the sickest patients and a number of very healthy patients who
survived 36(+) months. Perhaps 8 such patients (24.2%) were
All the number of long livers in the 4 groups as well as the number of pre 36 months progressors and non progressors in the Treatment group are hypothetical. However, what I am trying to show is that given Dr. Liau's statement that most of the post 36 months survivors were PFS, we must have ended up with some post 36 months Treatment survivors who had progressed before 36 months and with even fewer post 36 months SOC survivors who had progressed. The reason for this disparity is that the number of Treatment patients in that category was much higher than the number of SOC (hypothetical 176 vs. real 66) and the Treatment patients had the advantage of receiving DCVax-L earlier than the SOC patients.
Please note that we end up with 78 (52+26) post 36(+) months Treatment survivors and 15 (7+8) post 36(+) months SOC survivors. That adds up to 93 long livers. I believe the hypothetical numbers may not be far from reality.