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Will the stock market tumble back to its coronavirus lows in March? About 92 years of S&P 500 history says there’s a good chance

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/will-the-stock-market-tumble-back-to-its-coronavirus-lows-in-march-about-92-years-of-sp-500-history-says-theres-a-good-chance-2020-05-01


So far, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -2.55%, the S&P 500 SPX, -2.80% and the Nasdaq Composite COMP, -3.20% indexes were struggling to start off trade in May, after an uptrend in April that produced the best monthly gains in years.

The Dow is up about 28% from its March 23 low at 18.591.93, the S&P 500 is up 27% from its low at 2,237.40 and Nasdaq is has returned 26% from its bear-market nadir at 6,850.67, according to FactSet data.

JPMorgan Chase & Co., analysts warned last month that investors should get ready for a “vicious spiral” that is twice as severe as the 2008 financial crisis, while MarketWatch’s Hulbert wrote a separate piece pointing to August as a possible last stand for the bears.

“In the first bear market of the Great Depression, the S&P fell 44.57% over 58 days and then rallied 20%+ to enter a new bull market,” the analysts at Bespoke wrote in a Friday report. “Unfortunately, the S&P went on to make a lower low 338 days later, and then kept going lower and lower for years,” the report continued.

Many investors believe that the monetary and fiscal stimulus could be a sufficient cocktail to help ward off a revisit to the depths of March, but economic reports that point at stark deterioration in economic activity compared with a few months ago may be enough to shake the nerve of even the most rock-solid bulls.


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