Yesterday I posted to my having sold 5,000 shares of RCEL @ $5.57. I followed up by selling an additional 5,000 shares resulting in an average of slightly more than $5.62/share. Recognizing the drop in Australia overnight (for us), it's looking like we will likely fall this morning as follows:
Australia closing price:
$0.4350
Currency swap:
$0.5997
Multiply the above two and then again by a factor of 20 and it appears we in the U.S. market will likely see RCEL trading at $5.21. Inasmuch as lour Avita shares officially closed yesterday at $5.80, it's looking like we're now in store for a significant drop amounting to around 60 cents.
Based on several items beginning with the descending slide Down Under, it's apparent to me that my earlier expectation that we'll soon be in the $5.00 range to upper $4.00 will very likely come to pass.
My thought is to sell another 10,000 shares in the premarket hours---as soon as I finish this note to followers and/or interested parties. I've sat by, helplessly watching huge losses mounting in my portfolio. Inasmuch as I am not using margin at the moment there's a bit of consolation in the fact that I can't remember the last time I wasn't using borrowed money. Borrowed money is the curse of ravaged markets, it is the not-so-silent killer that will rape any investor during the wee hours of the night without a smile.
The petroleum market is heavily based on supply and demand data translating into potential profits for numerous sides of the oil & gas equation. Driving habits will surely change for the longer term resulting from social distancing requirements we and/or our governments and health professionals encourage and/demand.
RCEL will be impacted by the demand side of things. To my knowledge, supply side economics do not occupy any place in this discussion. But people will be reaching out in increasing numbers for Avita's help in managing a growing number of treatment care approaches.
Looking out at the horizon, I'm seeing a world suffering damaging blows bringing death and terrible illness to many. Part of the situation is supported by existential threats for we've never experienced such a calamitous debacle. And we worry that our lives will---perhaps---never return to normal---or at least any semblance of normal such that we might find acceptable.
And something I've not yet seen in the news anywhere---shockingly:
Because we are connected by the web, we are able to instantly plug into all news released anywhere on the globe! And it is this fact alone that tells me much about the influence of global fear and how it plays into market potentialities.
And therein is the thing that has me feeling as though I'm part of a world inhabited by the floating decimal monster.
You see---
Market participants invariably operate on the basis of a perceived absolute. We see yesterday's price begin to rise in a stock pick and we try to buy shares in premarket hours hoping not everybody is aware of the opportunity at hand. A moment ago I placed 15,000 shares of RCEL up for sale at around $5.65. Developing this message brought me to realize I'd be an idiot to not listen to myself.
Perceived absolutes---what are they? They are bits of patterned expectational behaviors we come to accept for a variety of reasons, possibly. But in the end we follow our gut responses believing them to be our most loyal defenders.
For the trader in me there's two sides to this particular equation:
1. Buy into good deals. This may mean taking advantage of a fire sale moment indicative of sudden good news sure to highlight profit potentials. Or maybe there'll be news of a Corona virus cure just around the corner. The point here is that we want to be ever cognizant of those factors most assuredly leading to heightened valuations due our stock picks of choice.
2. Salvage what I can when I sense a large drop pending in the overall market's perceived value. By doing this I'd hope to preserve capital to be used when things reverse and the broader market shows signs of coming back to something more dependable than a mere hope, wish or other fantasy.
Salvaging what I can by taking action now, I increase my investing lifeline to be utilized at such time as things do return to some sort of normal, be it a new normal or something else. And if I should cease to exist before that time? Not much I can do about that as I don't hold all the cards. But I do hold my portfolio cards!
We are living in a floating decimal moment, strange as that may strike some. We don't control much of anything save for the money in stocks that we currently control. Market gyrations certainly impact on this particular state of affairs as I'm sure each of us has sustained at least some measure of personal loss, be it money, retirement future-security programs and/or loss of a loved one. All of our formerly presumed absolutes are suddenly thrown into question and one can only wonder when it will all end?
I have no way to answer that although I've come to the conclusion that my investment in Avita will one day prove to have been profitable. If I should no longer be around due to the virus, so be it. But I'll have cast my vote and it will be for others here and elsewhere to establish our next supportable expectation.
I'm firmly convinced that I belong in this crowd of Avita believers and investors.
Hoping this helps somebody,
Jugs
