Bigworld, >> I am absolutely of the opinion that we are going to follow the 1929-1933 template... DOW 5,000 <<
Based on that, then HDGE or SH would be the place to be. But what if that bearish scenario doesn't happen, or your timing is wrong, or the investment vehicle chosen is wrong, or the investment vehicle blows up for some unforeseen reason?
One reason why passive investing works so much better than active investing is that there are fewer decisions to make. Every time you have to make a decision, there is the chance to be wrong. Therefore, reduce the number of decisions and the investment results improve.
However, if you are right and we descend into another Great Depression, then traditional investing rules could be turned on their head. Jim Rickards is also predicting a huge calamity (Ice-9), where banks and brokerage accounts will be indefinitely frozen. So that basically rules out owning any stocks (including miners), bonds, and even cash -
Stocks - no good
Bonds - no good
Cash - only the amount you need
Gold + silver - good
Hard assets - land, paid-for real estate, art
