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Some may have missed my point so I'll elaborate

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spec machine   Thursday, 03/26/20 11:03:19 AM
Re: None
Post # of 3455 
Some may have missed my point so I'll elaborate

but first, my sarcasm might not have been well timed or appreciated given the current status of pretty much every aspect of life being in a bit of turmoil to say the least

that said, it's not a situation of me being concerned if everyone "likes" my opinions and comments

the real truth is, I post my opinions and comments without any concern if ANYONE likes them

I post my opinions to share my opinions on the topic at hand, period.

Now, on that topic of GSPE and the situation

I don't think it's possible to have head buried in the sand so deep to not see that the current situation is drastically different than it was just a few weeks ago

Upstream CAPEX is driven by price and demand, BOTH of which have taken a pummeling, the WHOLE SECTOR is reeling from the hit

GSPE is at the critical step of getting signatures on funding to cover the remaining cost to drill an exploratory well, an expensive one that had an unsuccessful first try (avoiding the word "failure" here to acknowledge there were lessons learned and important data collected)

The economics are simply not there to drill for $30 breakeven oil in a $25 market that is still oversupplied

GSPE is hit with a tsunami of bad factors from record oil demand collapse, oil war pricing in an oversupplied market, being a microcap in a risk-off environment, and disruptions due to Covid-19

so yes, I think GSPE is far less valuable in this environment

market agrees

so the question is, where do you want your capital deployed in this situation? and that is greatly influenced by what the future holds

when will the environment change, how much, what else will change before then, and what will the valuation of GSPE be then?

it's easy to see where the valuation is today, trading is betting on the direction to get to tomorrow's valuation

spec

- Foglifter -

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