Gold Miners ETF (GDX)

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NY Gold Nearest Futures - Reaction Low »» Monthly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | March 21, 2020

CURRENTLY, OUR ANALYTICAL POSITION AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. Mar. 20, 2020: The NY Gold Nearest Futures closing today at 148460 is immediately trading down about 2.52% for the year from last year's closing of 152310. At present, this market has been rising for this market has been rising for 3 months going into March reflecting that this has been only still a bullish reactionary trend. while it is still trading below last month's low of 155110. FOCUSING ON TREND


As of now, the market remains neutral on the momentum indicator yet bearish on the short-term trend indicator while the long-term trend and cyclical strength are bearish.

The historical major high took place back in 2011 and we have then witnessed a bearish subsequent trend for 8 years. The correction since that high has been a 54% decline with the next general key area to watch would be 42321 and a closing below this area would technically warn that this market is indeed in meltdown mode. There was a subsequent correction low that formed during 2015 and we have bounced some 42% which has been a respectable recovery to date. We have elected one yearly buy signal during this bounce currently. This market on the yearly level has been consolidating since the high established Sat. Jan. 1, 2011 for the past 8 years and a closing below 68090 would signal that a continued decline is underway. Likewise, only a breakout to new highs with a closing above 192370 would suggest a renewed rally is unfolding.

Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 163186 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Nevertheless, our technical support lies at 137370 which is still holding at this time. At this moment, the market remains between these two projections leaving it neutral on a technical basis.

Our timing models warn that a turning point is due come May in NY Gold Nearest Futures so we should remain focused. The last cyclical event was a high established back during February. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a low. However, to date, this market has exceeded the previous high established at 169170, but it is now trading back below the previous close, which suggests it may have simply faded that high and that could remain as a cycle high on a closing basis. Last month produced a high at 169170 but closed on the weak side and so far, we have exceeded last month's high. We now need to close above 169170 on a monthly basis to imply a further advance to the upside immediately for now.

Critical support still underlies this market at 144610 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength. On a broader perspective, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 18 months. The previous low of 116270 made during August 2018 on the Monthly level has held and only a break of 151970 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. The previous high made during February on the Monthly level at 169170 has now been exceeded in the recent rally. We have generated a buy signal so some caution is required.

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