BCEI - ecoblot, i just actually posted about BCEI over at FinanceYahoo board, where i sometimes posted over the many months since Fall 2018 when i averaged down to create a big investment, which i swung-trade in toto twice, finally netting some decent 18% gains over 15 months or so.
Here's the post (and note that i speak of EPS and P/E valuations, which isn't the best metric to use but only a quick way of speaking of valuations):
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Hmmm, BCEI again back under $20 on WTI oilprice dropping down from $60s to mid-$58s.
Long-term i think any investor buying BCEI shares at these sub-$20 prices will have the chance to profit swing-trading any upward spikes to $23-$25 level as oil goes back to low- to mid-$60s.
What keeps me from buying at present is looking at those analyst estimates (for whatever those estimates are worth).
When i took big investments in BCEI in Fall 2018, everyone was expecting [based on mgmt's projections] 50% growth in 2019 and analysts were giving EPS estimates in the $7s for 2019 and $8s for 2020.
Now, the estimates by analysts are in the $5.90s EPS for 2019 (we'll know precisely when Q4 results are reported by BCEI), and ONLY $5.60s for 2020. That's much reduced from the $8s in EPS being projected a year ago.
So it's unlikely that the mkt players will be bidding this up to P/E valuations of 5 or 6.
Which means BCEI and most other E&Ps will be stigmatized to trade at these low 3-4 P/E valuations for the foreseeable future.
The co. has to demonstrate strong cash flow in 2020 to attract more buyers.
Otherwise, it seems the only way the E&P sector will get bid up again is by oilprice shooting back up to mid or upper $60s on significant further supply disruptions or some renewed huge demand out of China.
Jmo....
AI
