NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

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You may want to read through this one that I wrote to you back in early August addressing this topic as well.

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=150268404&txt2find=optune|survival

sentiment_stocks Member Level Thursday, 08/01/19 12:26:25 PM
Re: sukus post# 238118 0
Post # of 248748

There were 43 patients who wore the helmet for 90% OR MORE of the time.

All 43 patients had been in the trial for 2 years.

Some much smaller number had been in the trial past two years.

Now if all 43 had been in the trial for 5 years - living or not - 29.3% of them would have equaled 13 patients.

However, that was most assuredly not the case as this figure - 29.3% - was a KM-derived percentage based on a much smaller population of patients who had been in the trial for 5 years. It was more than likely based on about 2, maybe 3 patients.

It's similar to the DCVax-L trial 2017 data from the 2018 journal. At that time (2017), there were 44 patients who had lived to 44 months, and their KM-derived mOS was 88.2 months. But that number was based on just a few patients that had lived that long - likely some number of the 6 patients out of original 38 who had lived to 36 months.

Quote:
Among the ITT patients with a surgery date ≥ 36 months prior to the data collection (n = 182), 24.2% (n = 44) have lived ≥ 36 months and their KM-derived mOS estimate is 88.2 months.

https://translational-medicine.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12967-018-1507-6

Then as of October 2018 (data presented in November 2018), the top 100 surviving patients had a mOS of 58.4 months. So the data changes as the trial moves along, and the data becomes more set in stone as the survival years become real-time and not estimated.

The problem with the Optune data, as Flip has pointed out so many times, is that Novocure stopped the trial after everyone had been in it for just 2 years, basically freezing the estimated KM survival data at what it showed then, which was 29.3% for those 43 patients who'd worn the device for 90+ percent of the time. That's why the 3, 4 and 5 year survival percentage for those 43 patients is 29.3% every year. It was frozen in time. This KM data implies that at the 5th year, there were 13 from the 45 alive. The fact that Optune doesn't confirm this data, at the real-time 3, 4 and 5 year mark, argues that this isn't what ended up to be the case.

Regardless, if DCVax-L shows the same or better argues that L will be approved because a shot in the arm, and the accompanying minor symptoms, are a far better alternative to wearing the device on one's head 90% of the day, each and every day of their lives, and its accompanying symptoms.