I cannot say if investors will vote on a buyout, or if management controls so many shares that such a vote is unnecessary, but one thing I'm reasonably certain of, the premium on a buyout won't be significantly over a double of the current market cap, and much more likely far less than that.
If the buyout was to be done at $20 billion, it's likely the market cap at the time would be around $15 billion. The point is, we'll already have become quite successful before any such buyout could possibly come. At that point, the question is, they buyout price may be one that could take years to achieve, but once achieved, it wouldn't stop moving up, would the majority want out, or would they rather take the longer term view of even greater growth.
I believe that as long as the premium is at least 40% above the share price at the time, and it's in double digit billions, investors will choose the buyout. At today's prices I doubt if even a 1000% premium would gain the support of many investors, so it's all a matter of timing.
As long as the top line data looks good, our market cap should grow to half a billion or more, that's where we'd begin to grow from. The full data should send us higher, let's say to the billion plus market cap. A partnership would boost the market cap dramatically, and if the partner takes an equity position, the price the partner pays per share should establish a new trading range.
For talking purposes, let's say a partner agrees to purchasing 10% of the shares in the company for $3 to $5 a share. Depending on the O/S that should put the market cap somewhere between $3 billion, and $8 billion as by that time all warrants, etc. should be cashed in. If our O/S was up to 1 billion shares, a $5 partnership price would give us a $5 billion market cap. If after this time a BLA was filed, and at the same time more data was available for DCVax-Direct that looked real positive, perhaps the share price would reach $10 or more. That would put us at a price where a $20 billion buyout could be a consideration. If you look at timing for the above, it's not impossible for all this to happen by the first half of next year, but it also could take substantially longer.
I believe the key is more data on DCVax-Direct, and I really have no feel for when that could become reality. I do not see a $20 billion offer if nothing more is known about Direct, even though all that's known to date is positive.
Gary
