Well, the trade deal progress should mean no stock market crash, and with luck no global recession next year. But the impeachment witch hunt is just getting started, which will provide an ominous backdrop, and to weaken Trump the media will be filled with endless negativity.
Another key factor in my recession 'triad' (see below) is the possibility of a shooting war between Iran and Saudi Arabia, with or without US direct involvement.
Keeping score -- #1 is fading, #2 is still possible, and #3 is coming and will intensify. But at least the trade war is receding, which is key to avoiding a recession -
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3 factors that could produce a global recession next year -
1 - US-China trade war
2 - Iran-Saudi shooting war
3 - Impeachment of Trump
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It's possible the global markets might ultimately view the removal of 'drama queen Don' as a net positive, but the prolonged uncertainty and angst of impeachment isn't going to help in the near/mid term.
