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NY Crude Oil Futures »» Preparing to Breakout to Upside - Monthly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | September 28, 2019

THE IMMEDIATE ANALYTICAL STANCE AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. Sep. 27, 2019: NY Crude Oil Futures closed today at 5591 and is trading up about 23% for the year from last year's closing of 4541. This price action here in September is suggesting that this has been a bear market trend on the monthly level. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 6338 intraday and is still trading above that high of 5799.


As of now, the market remains bearish on the short-term levels of our indicators while the long-term trend is neutral and our cyclical strength is bullish.

The historical major high took place back in 2008 and we have then witnessed a bearish subsequent trend for 10 years. The correction since that high has been a 17% decline with the next general key area to watch would be 10102 and a closing beneath that would technically imply a more correction process unfolding on a bit more sustain basis near-term. There was a subsequent correction low that formed during 2016 and we have bounced some 114% which has been a very strong rally to date. We have elected both long-term yearly buy signals during this bounce currently which suggests that a pause in the decline was warranted.

Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 8171 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Nevertheless, our technical support lies at 4051 which is still holding at this time. At this moment, the market remains between these two projections leaving it neutral on a technical basis.

Our timing models warn that a turning point is due come November in NY Crude Oil Futures so we should remain focused. The last cyclical event was a low established back during August. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a reaction high. However, the market has made a rebound to the upside so we could see a potential reaction high at that time frame. Last month produced a low at 5052 but closed on the positive side and so far, we have exceeded last month's high. We now need to close above 5993 at month-end to imply a technical reversal of trend to the upside for now.

Some caution is necessary since the last high 6660 was important given we did obtain two sell signals from that event established during April. That high was still lower than the previous high established at 7690 back during October 2018. Critical support still underlies this market at 4810 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak. Taking a broader view, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We can see this market has been down for the past month. The previous high made during April on the Monthly level at 6660 remains significant technically and only exceeding that level on a closing basis would suggest a reversal in the immediate trend. The previous low of 4236 made during December 2018 on the Monthly level has held and only a break of 5485 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. However, we still remain above key support 4435 on a closing basis.

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