Gold Miners ETF (GDX)

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NY Gold Nearest Futures - Monthly Summary Analysis »» Temp High
By: Marty Armstrong | September 21, 2019

THE ANALYTICAL POSTURE CURRENTLY AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. Sep. 20, 2019: NY Gold Nearest Futures closed today at 151510 and is trading up about 18% for the year from last year's closing of 128130. Up to now, this market has been rising for this market has been rising for 3 months going into September reflecting that this has been only still a bullish reactionary trend. yet it is trading below last month's close of 152940.


As of now, the market remains bullish on the momentum indicator yet neutral on the short-term trend indicator while the long-term trend is bearish.

The historical major high took place back in 2011 and we have then witnessed a bearish subsequent trend for 7 years. The correction since that high has been a 54% decline with the next general key area to watch would be 42321 and a closing below this area would technically warn that this market is indeed in meltdown mode. There was a subsequent correction low that formed during 2015 and we have bounced some 44% which has been an appreciable up move to date. We have elected both long-term yearly buy signals during this bounce currently which suggests that a pause in the decline was warranted. This market on the yearly level has been consolidating since the high established during 2011 for the past 7 years with a subsequent low established during 2015 at 104540. Since last year did exceed the previous high

Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 157594 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Nevertheless, our technical support lies at 131000 which is still holding at this time. At this moment, the market remains between these two projections leaving it neutral on a technical basis.

Our timing models warn that a turning point is due come October in NY Gold Nearest Futures so we should remain focused. The last cyclical event was a high established back during August. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a low. However, to date, this market has already exceeded that previous high established at 155980. This strongly implies we are in a cycle inversion process, which tends to be rather bullish overall. Last month produced a high at 155980 but closed on the positive side and so far, we have exceeded last month's high. We now need to close above 155980 on a monthly basis to imply a further advance to the upside immediately for now.

Critical support still underlies this market at 128070 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength. On a broader perspective, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 12 months. The previous low of 116270 made during August 2018 on the Monthly level has held and only a break of 138470 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. The previous high made during August on the Monthly level at 155980 has now been exceeded in the recent rally. We have generated a buy signal so some caution is required.

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