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Re: Dutch1 post# 30085

Friday, 08/02/2019 2:02:05 PM

Friday, August 02, 2019 2:02:05 PM

Post# of 30375

I recommend to keep an eye on PEIX the next months/years, maybe something changes that gives you a nice entry point once the ship really turns.


It's unlikely that there will be a turnaround in this stock any time soon. The first paragraph of this trade journal article, published yesterday, says that Pacific Ethanol is trying to sell its' two plants in Nebraska. The article also says

Pacific Ethanol is one of two major ethanol companies to report losses on Thursday. Pacific Ethanol and Archer Daniels Midland said in separate earnings calls the U.S. reaching a trade deal with China would be huge for the industry in a persistent, negative-margin environment.

Koehler said the industry continues to suffer from oversupply, a lack of trade with China and from small-refinery exemptions to the Renewable Fuel Standard that have reduced demand since 2016 by about 2.6 billion ethanol-equivalent gallons.

"A resolution to the trade dispute is the one shot in the arm the industry would see," he said. "It will get resolved at some point."

Though Pacific Ethanol reported an operating loss of $2.7 million in the second quarter, it was an improvement from the $10.2 million loss in quarter one.


Koehler, mentioned in the second of these quoted paragraphs, is the CEO of Pacific Ethanol.

China is not in the habit of helping American businesses. In addition, this reduced Q2 loss will become a large Q3 or Q4 loss if and when Pacific Ethanol has to pay to scrap their two plants. I'm not even trying to calculate the loss they could incur if they lose the lawsuit with Greenshift.
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