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Tuesday, 06/25/2019 7:56:21 AM

Tuesday, June 25, 2019 7:56:21 AM

Post# of 67598
Bullish Last 3 Days June Starts NASDAQ’s Midyear Rally
By: Almanac Trader | June 24, 2019



Over the past 21 years the last three trading days of the second quarter combined have been bullish. This three-consecutive-day period has accumulated average gains ranging from 0.5% for DJIA to 1.3% by Russell 2000. The most consistent source of gains has come from Russell 2000 and NASDAQ, both advancing 76.2% of the time during the period. S&P 500 is also typically strong, up 71.4% of the time while DJIA has advanced just 57.1% of the time. Dependable gains by tech and small-caps are likely the result of traders and investors bidding up shares in anticipation of solid Q2 earnings.

The 3-day span is also the start of NASDAQ’s Midyear Rally. Consistent end-of-Q2 weakness, especially in the week after June’s option expiration week, which we have been experiencing a bit the past couple days, usually contributes to the setup of NASDAQ’s Midyear Rally. Any weakness, particularly sharp, brisk declines near the end of June can make a great entry point as the first trading day of July is generally strong and the first half of July is more bullish than the second half.

In the mid-1980s the market began to evolve into a tech-driven market and the market’s focus in early summer shifted to the outlook for second quarter earnings of technology companies. Over the last three trading days of June and the first nine trading days in July, NASDAQ typically enjoys a rally. This 12-day run has been up 26 of the past 34 years with an average historical gain of 2.5%. This year the rally could begin on or around June 26 and last until around July 12.

After the bursting of the tech bubble in 2000, NASDAQ’s mid-year rally had a spotty track record from 2002 until 2009 with three appearances and five no-shows in those years. However, it has been quite solid over the last nine years, up eight times with a single mild 0.1% loss in 2015. Last year, NASDAQ advanced a solid 3.5% during the 12-day span.



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