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S&P 500 Index (SPX) Monthly Summary Analysis »» Temp High
By: Marty Armstrong | May 11, 2019

THE ANALYSIS PER THE CLOSE OF Fri. May 10, 2019: S&P 500 Cash Index closed today at 288140 and is trading up about 14% for the year from last year's closing of 250685. Up to this moment in time, this market has been rising for this market has been rising for 4 months going into May suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level which has been confirmed by electing all of our model's long-term Bullish Reversals from the key low. yet it is trading below last month's close of 294583.


Currently, the market remains bearish on the short-term levels of our indicators while the long-term trend is bearish.

During this year, we have exceeded last year's high thereby making a new historical major high to date and we have been in a bull market for a reasonable period of 10 years.

Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 307667 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Nevertheless, our technical support lies at 202439 which is still holding at this time. At this moment, the market remains between these two projections leaving it neutral on a technical basis.

A possible change in trend appears due come August in S&P 500 Cash Index so be focused. The last cyclical event was a high established back during April. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a low. However, to date, this market has already exceeded that previous high established at 294952. This strongly implies we are in a cycle inversion process, which tends to be rather bullish overall. Last month produced a high at 294952 but closed on the positive side and so far, we have exceeded last month's high. We now need to close above 294952 on a monthly basis to imply a further advance to the upside immediately for now.

Critical support still underlies this market at 279633 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength. On a broader perspective, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 4 months. The previous low of 234658 made during December 2018 on the Monthly level has held and only a break of 272227 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. The previous high made during April on the Monthly level at 294952 has now been exceeded in the recent rally. We have generated a buy signal so some caution is required.

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