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S&P 500 Index (SPX) Monthly Summary Analysis »» Important Reaction High
By: Marty Armstrong | April 27, 2019

OUR ANALYTICAL VIEWPOINT AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. Apr. 26, 2019: S&P 500 Cash Index closed today at 293988 and is trading up about 17% for the year from last year's closing of 250685. Immediately, this market has been rising for this market has been rising for 3 months going into April reflecting that this has been only still a bullish reactionary trend. while it is still trading above last month's high of 286031.


Factually, the market remains unchanged within support still above our system indicators while the long-term trend and cyclical strength are bullish.

The historical major high took place here in 2018 and we have up to now this year remained trading within last year's range in a consolidating pattern. So far we have seen a trading range of 293988 for a high and 244396 for the low.

Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 307667 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Nevertheless, our technical support lies at 202439 which is still holding at this time. At this moment, the market remains between these two projections leaving it neutral on a technical basis.

Our timing models warn that a turning point is due come May in S&P 500 Cash Index so we should remain focused. The last cyclical event was a low established back during December 2018. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a reaction high. However, the market has made a rebound to the upside so we could see a potential reaction high at that time frame. Last month produced a high at 286031 but closed on the positive side and so far, we have exceeded last month's high. We now need to close above 286031 on a monthly basis to imply a further advance to the upside immediately for now. The projected resistance for this week stands at 297859 and we need to close above this level on a weekly basis to maintain any upward momentum.

Some caution is necessary since the last high 294091 was important given we did obtain two sell signals from that event established during September 2018. Critical support still underlies this market at 235271 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak. Overall on a broader basis, looking at the monthly level on our models, this market is currently in a rising trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 3 months. The previous low of 234658 made during December 2018 on the Monthly level has held and only a break of 268183 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. The previous high made during September 2018 on the Monthly level at 294091 remains significant technically and only exceeding that level on a closing basis would suggest a reversal in the immediate trend. We have generated a buy signal so some caution is required.

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