Short Position Mentality: I’ll start by saying I could be 100% wrong. The pump comments basically amount to hopes, anticipation of future revenue/growth, continuing price explosions, super-positive speculative interpretations of lackluster news releases, ect. Most people in these forums are looking for short-term visceral moves in price in the near-term, while a few might be in it for years down the road. With that in mind, I can shed a little light on the short mentality I have and am currently working with vertical put spreads. Keep in mind short traders have expiration dates, so we rarely focus on where a company will be 11 months from now or when Amazon or Alphabet will buy this money pit of research and development.
If based on fundamental analysis:
The ROI, ROE, are ROA horrible. The 11.6% increase in quarterly revenue is great, but it was accompanied by 21.79% decrease in net income to -$78mil. All this while quarterly Total equity doubled. The quarterly call brought up some really great questions (especially from Roth Capital) about future growth and deals that were answered ambiguously.
If based on technical Analysis: Divergence of CCI from upward price movement, tipping of OBV, trickling down Money Flow Index, divergence of MACD to upward price movement, and a previous top in 2017 around $3.00 are pointing to a decline. If you’re a mean reversion kinda trader, then you’re looking at a Fibonacci retracement down to the $1.90s. The run already happened…$1.40 to $2.60, and swing traders are taking their profits for sure.
Again…I could be wrong, but it does take people losing money for me to make money.
And always remember shorts have expiration dates, and longs can hold forever. Short-traders are not saying this won't be a great company, they're just saying in the near-term, it'll most likely dip down. Be careful not to blend long-term speculation with short-term analysis. It tends to crush people.
GLTA and I hope the wishes come true. I just do probability and risk-based mathematics.
