8:55a Redbook Chain Store Sales Y/Y change 5.0% vs 4.8% prior
Highlights
Rising about 1 percentage point over the last month, Redbook's same-store sales index is showing year-on-year growth of 5.0 percent in the April 13 week. This year's Easter shift from early April last year (April 1) to late April this year (April 21) is a plus for this month's sales.
9:15a Industrial Production
Production - M/M change -0.1% vs 0.1% prior
Manufacturing - M/M 0.0% vs -0.4% prior
Capacity Utilization Rate - Level 78.8% vs 78.2% prior
Highlights
The U.S. industrial economy, and specifically the manufacturing sector, continues to sputter. Industrial production unexpectedly slipped 0.1 percent in March vs Econoday's consensus for a 0.3 percent gain. Manufacturing production was also expected to rise 0.3 percent in March but instead came in unchanged. Overall capacity utilization, at 78.8 percent, missed expectations by 3 tenths.
There is some good news in the report and that is a bounce back for the production of business equipment, up 0.4 percent after February's sharp 0.8 percent downdraft. This year-on-year rate, at plus 3.8 percent, still leads the manufacturing readings and suggests that businesses, finding skilled labor in short supply, are turning to machinery for production. Consumer goods, in contrast, fell 0.2 percent in the month for a year-on-year 0.1 percent decline. Manufacturing volumes overall are up only 1.0 percent on the year vs 2.8 percent for total industrial production.
Like manufacturing, the report's two other components are also soft in today's report with utilities up 0.2 percent and with mining, which has been a major source of strength the last two years, down 0.8 percent in the month. Still, growth in mining volumes remains in the double digits on an annual basis, at 10.5 percent.
Turning back to manufacturing, vehicle production fell a sharp 2.5 percent in March with this yearly rate deep in the negative column, at minus 4.5 percent. The report's selected hi-tech category rose 0.2 percent for yearly growth of 3.5 percent.
Positive readings for business equipment and hi-tech do offer some offset to general weakness in manufacturing. Exports are not broken out in this report but weakness here is a likely culprit for a manufacturing sector that began to break down late last year and so far this year, does not look like it will be contributing much to overall economic growth in the 2019 economy.
10:00a NAHB Housing Market Index 63 vs 62 prior
Highlights
Builder optimism is inching higher this month compared to March, at an as-expected 63 for the housing market index. This index literally plunged at year end and has been struggling back since, getting a lift from what has been a major decline in mortgage rates.
But the latest sales indications are mixed with current sales up 1 point to 69 but with 6-month sales down 1 point at 71. The report's traffic component is improving this month, up 3 points but continuing to lag far back at 47 in what still suggests that first-time new home buyers are showing little interest in the market.
Composite data show the West, despite the downturn underway in the region's home prices, out in front at 69 followed by the South at 67. The Midwest and Northeast trail at 53 and 51.
April is the beginning of the Spring housing season and very favorable mortgage rates are expected to provide badly needed momentum. Yet this report, which didn't really beat anyone's expectations, is hinting more at moderate strength than exceptional strength.
Dan 
