Gold Miners ETF (GDX)

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NY Gold Nearest Futures Monthly Summary Analysis »» CAUTION ADVISED
By: Marty Armstrong | April 13, 2019

OUR ANALYTICAL OUTLOOK AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. Apr. 12, 2019: NY Gold Nearest Futures closed today at 129520 and is trading up about 1.08% for the year from last year's closing of 128130. At present, this market is currently trading below last month's closeand it had been weak for the past 2 months and if the market continues to remain beneath the previous month's close of 129850, then it will be in a weak position just yet. This price action here in April is reflecting that this is within the scope of a bearish reactionary move on the monthly level thus far.


As of now, the market remains bearish on our momentum indicator yet neutral on the short-term trend indicator while the long-term trend is bearish and our cyclical strength is bullish.

The historical major high took place back in 2011 and we have then witnessed a bearish subsequent trend for 7 years. The correction since that high has been a 54% decline with the next general key area to watch would be 42321 and a closing below this area would technically warn that this market is indeed in meltdown mode. There was a subsequent correction low that formed during 2015 and we have bounced some 23% which has been a reasonable rally to date. We have elected both long-term yearly buy signals during this bounce currently which suggests that a pause in the decline was warranted. This market on the yearly level has been consolidating since the high established during 2011 for the past 7 years with a subsequent low established during 2015 at 104540. Since last year did exceed the previous high

Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 157594 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Nevertheless, our technical support lies at 131000 which the market is now trading beneath illustrating technical weakness.

A possible change in trend appears due come July in NY Gold Nearest Futures so be focused. The last cyclical event was a low established back during March. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a reaction high. However, the market has been neutral for right now, so caution is advisable and look more closely at the short-term trading levels for a hint of the next directional move into that target time frame. Last month produced a low at 128080 but closed on the weak side and so far, we are trading neutral within last month's trading range of 132450 to 128080. We need to breakout of this range to confirm the direction. Therefore, a close above will be bullish and a close below will warn of a possible decline.

Critical support still underlies this market at 123820 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position. Looking at a broader time horizon, this market is in an uptrend position on all our monthly indicators for the near-term trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 7 months. The previous low of 116270 made during August 2018 on the Monthly level. The previous high made during February on the Monthly level at 134980 remains significant technically and only exceeding that level on a closing basis would suggest a reversal in the immediate trend. We have generated a buy signal so some caution is required.

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