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Wednesday, March 20, 2019 8:09:44 AM
S&P 500 Down 7 of Last 8 Fed Announcement Days
By: Almanac Trader | March 19, 2019
As of today, CME Group’s FedWatch Tool is currently showing a 98.7% chance the Fed will not change the Fed Funds rate tomorrow. During the current Fed tightening cycle (which is likely over for now), rates have been raised in 0.25% increments 9 times with the first occurring on December 16, 2015 and most recently on December 19, 2018. S&P 500 has advanced just two times out of the nine announcement days when rates were increased and was down seven straight prior to this January’s announcement when they paused.
In the chart above the 30 trading days before and after the last 88 Fed meetings (back to March 2008) are graphed. There are four lines, “All,” “Up,” “Down” and “Rate Hike Days” Up means the S&P 500 finished announcement day with a gain, down it finished with a loss or unchanged. Rate Hike Days are the nine times a hike was announced. Note how past down announcement days have, on average, enjoyed the best gains over the next 30 trading days.
Of the last 88 announcement days, the S&P 500 finished the day positive 49 times. Of these 49 positive days S&P 500 was down 28 times (57.1%) the next day. Of the 39 down announcement days, the following day was down 21 times (53.8%). All 88 announcement days have averaged 0.37% S&P 500 gains while the day after has been a net loser with S&P 500 declining 0.31% on average.
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By: Almanac Trader | March 19, 2019
As of today, CME Group’s FedWatch Tool is currently showing a 98.7% chance the Fed will not change the Fed Funds rate tomorrow. During the current Fed tightening cycle (which is likely over for now), rates have been raised in 0.25% increments 9 times with the first occurring on December 16, 2015 and most recently on December 19, 2018. S&P 500 has advanced just two times out of the nine announcement days when rates were increased and was down seven straight prior to this January’s announcement when they paused.
In the chart above the 30 trading days before and after the last 88 Fed meetings (back to March 2008) are graphed. There are four lines, “All,” “Up,” “Down” and “Rate Hike Days” Up means the S&P 500 finished announcement day with a gain, down it finished with a loss or unchanged. Rate Hike Days are the nine times a hike was announced. Note how past down announcement days have, on average, enjoyed the best gains over the next 30 trading days.
Of the last 88 announcement days, the S&P 500 finished the day positive 49 times. Of these 49 positive days S&P 500 was down 28 times (57.1%) the next day. Of the 39 down announcement days, the following day was down 21 times (53.8%). All 88 announcement days have averaged 0.37% S&P 500 gains while the day after has been a net loser with S&P 500 declining 0.31% on average.
Read Full Story »»»
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Information posted to this board is not meant to suggest any specific action, but to point out the technical signs that can help our readers make their own specific decisions. Your Due Dilegence is a must!
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