Proteon Therapeutics, Inc. (PRTO)

[Fenix1357]

Hi Kiwi,

Thanks for your reply.

I understand doubling the sample size will in all likelihood increase p value but the effect size will remain the same, all other things being unchanged. Although anything can happen I am assuming the effect size will be similar ie around 30-35% improvement in secondary use.

My interpretation of the significance is different from your wife and since she is renal PA my interpretation is probably wrong but as I understand it the secondary failure rate of the fistulae in the first year is 40%. This drug decreases it by 34 %. Since the study was only for one year it is unclear as to how long the fistulae remained open after the first year. The medicare published costs for secondary patency loss in the first year are $17808 per fistula.

I believe around 70000 fistulae are created in the US by AV shunting every year. 40% failure rate at a cost of 18K per failure is approximately 500 million. A 34 percent reduction in this is approximately 166 million in savings to medicare.

Interested to see what your wife thinks of this.

Fenix