S&P 500 & Nasdaq Analysis and Trends

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NASDAQ Composite Index (COMP) Monthly Summary Analysis »» Temp High
By: Marty Armstrong | February 8, 2019

THE IMMEDIATE ANALYTICAL STANCE AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. Feb. 8, 2019: NASDAQ Composite Index Cash closed today at 729820 and is trading up about 9.99% for the year from last year's closing of 663528. Presently, this market has been rising for this month going into February reflecting that this has been only still a bullish reactionary trend. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 741077 while it is still trading above last month's high of 730312.


The historical major high took place here in 2018 and we have up to now this year remained trading within last year's range in a consolidating pattern. This market on the yearly level has been making new highs since the last low established 9 years ago which has been a series of successive advances. The last 4 highs have been progressively making higher highs implying we have had a bullish market in motion for the past 35 years. The last high was made during 2018. The magnitude of this advance suggest we are dealing with a Plateau Move rather than a mere Phase Transition. We have not elected any Bullish Reversals thus far.

Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 857235 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Nevertheless, our technical support lies at 565602 which is still holding at this time. At this moment, the market remains between these two projections leaving it neutral on a technical basis.

A possible change in trend appears due come March in NASDAQ Composite Index Cash so be focused. The last cyclical event was a low established back during December 2018. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a reaction high. However, the market has been neutral for right now, so caution is advisable and look more closely at the short-term trading levels for a hint of the next directional move into that target time frame. Last month produced a neutral inside trading range from the previous month but closed on the positive side. At this time, we have exceeded last month's high yet we have been unable to maintain a closing above 730312 suggesting the market is still weak. We now need to close above 810738 on a monthly basis to imply a technical reversal of trend to the upside for now.

Some caution is necessary since the last high 813330 was important given we did obtain two sell signals from that event established during August 2018. Critical support still underlies this market at 580514 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak. Taking a broader view, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. Honing in on the direction of this trend, we had been moving down for 4 months. Subsequently, the market has consolidated for the past Monthly session. The previous high made during August 2018 on the Monthly level at 813330 remains significant technically and only exceeding that level on a closing basis would suggest a reversal in the immediate trend. The previous low of 619017 made during December 2018 on the Monthly level has held and only a break of 619017 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. We have generated a sell signal, so some caution is required.

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