Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[jessellivermore]

Understanding probability...

Recently a poster on this site posted that because there were only two possible outcomes in the R-I trial...Either Vascepa would prove to be effective in reducing CVD events a meaningful (statistical) way or it would not prove to be effective in reducing CVD events in a meaningful way...And because there were only two possible outcomes. A binary event. That the odds V would prove to be successful was 50/50...or 50% therefore predicting V would be successful was only a coin flip. So my prediction of success was no big deal..

Well it pretty clear the poster was not a math major...Just because there are only two outcomes does not mean both outcome are equally likely...If I got in the ring with Mike Tyson in his hay day...There would be two possible outcomes..either he wins or I win...But no one in his right mind would think the odds were equal...

In the R-I trial almost everyone including most cardiologists though R=I would not show meaningful results and that is confirmed by the PPS before and after the trial results were released at the Nov 10th AHA...In fact the betting was about seven to one in favor of the trial being a bust...Those of you who were here before 9/24/2018 know what I am talking about...So predicting and betting everything on being right was a big deal..

"":>) JL