NY Gold Nearest Futures Summary Analysis »» New Pattern Forming By: Marty Armstrong | January 12, 2019
Analysis for the Week of January 14, 2019
THE ANALYSIS PER THE CLOSE OF Fri. Jan. 11, 2019: NY Gold Nearest Futures closed today at 128950 and is trading up about 0.63% for the year from last year's closing of 128130. So far, we have been trading up for the past 3 days since the reaction low made on Tue. Jan. 8, 2019. (Note: We have included reference to Reversals and Short-Term timing considerations in this Summary Analysis, but please keep in mind this is a preview only - these references will be removed from Summary Analysis and moved to our higher levels of market analysis upon the upcoming launch of our expanded platform service.)
Our Benchmarks in the precious metals are reaching a convergence and are fixed for the weeks of 12/31 in gold followed by the silver target due the week of 1/7. Up to now, we have been declining in this market since the last high was made 12/31 at 127810 for the past 1 weeks.
The broader view on a cyclical model, provides us with a map to the future that is rather interesting. So far, we have exceeded last year's high of 136940 reaching 1488438 intraday. This suggests that a closing above the previous year's high should imply a continued rally into 2020 remains possible. A closing beneath 128130 would imply a possible correction into 2020 with a retest of the upside come 2021.
The historical major high took place back in 2011 and we have then witnessed a bearish subsequent trend for 7 years. The correction since that high has been a 54% decline with the next general key area to watch would be 42321 and a closing below this area would technically warn that this market is indeed in meltdown mode. There was a subsequent correction low that formed during 2015 and we have bounced some 23% which has been a reasonable rally to date. We have elected both long-term yearly buy signals during this bounce currently which suggests that a pause in the decline was warranted. This market on the yearly level has been consolidating since the high established during 2011 for the past 7 years with a subsequent low established during 2015 at 104540. Since last year did exceed the previous high
Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 165862 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Considering our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 132250 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 123640. This provides a 6.51% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 132640 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 119440. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 9.95%. Immediately, we closed the last session trading at the 128950, which is below this level on a daily closing basis at this moment. We need to close above this on a weekly basis to signal a rally is unfolding. Right now, the market is trading some 2.49% beneath that level.
A possible change in trend appears due come April in NY Gold Nearest Futures so be focused. The last cyclical event was a low established back during August 2018. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a reaction high. However, the market has made a rebound to the upside so we could see a potential reaction high at that time frame. Last month produced a high at 128650 but closed on the positive side and so far, we have exceeded last month's high. We now need to close above 128650 on a monthly basis to imply a further advance to the upside immediately for now. The projected resistance for this week stands at 133005 and we need to close above this level on a weekly basis to maintain any upward momentum.
Our Daily level momentum is bullish while the trend indicator is neutral providing a mixed short-term posture for the market. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend is neutral while the cyclical strength indicator is bullish providing a mixed perspective of the market beyond the short-term.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of December 31st at 130040, which was up 20 weeks from the low made back during the week of August 13th. We have been generally trading down to sideways for the past week, which has been a moderate move of .0155% in a reactionary type decline.
The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of December 31st has exceeded the previous high of 124600 made back during the week of October 22ndThis immediate decline has so far held the previous low formed at 116270 made the week of August 13th. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. . Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. From a pointed viewpoint, this market has been trading down for the past week.
Currently, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 21 weeks. The previous weekly level low was 116270, which formed during the week of August 13th, and only a break of 127810 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. The last high on the weekly level was 130040, which was created during the week of December 31st.
Some caution is necessary since the last high 136940 was important given we did obtain two sell signals from that event established during April 2018. Critical support still underlies this market at 119440 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak. Looking at a broader time horizon, this market is in an uptrend position on all our monthly indicators for the near-term trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 4 months. The previous monthly level low was 116270, which formed during August 2018, and only a break of 119660 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. The last high on the monthly level was 136940, which was created during April 2018. However, we still remain below key resistance 136540 on a closing basis.
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