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Smartphone shipments to start growing again from next year - IDC
Wednesday 12 December 2018 | 13:27 CET | News
Worldwide smartphone shipments are expected to decline by 3 percent this year before returning to low single-digit growth next year through 2022, according to the latest study from IDC. Shipments fell in the third quarter by 6 percent. Even though the ongoing US-China trade has industry on edge, IDC said it sees a return to growth going forwards based on continuing developments from emerging markets, the potential surrounding 5G and new product form factors.

For 2018, smartphone shipments should fall to 1.42 billion units from 1.47 billion the year before. Shipments will then rise 2.6 percent year-on-year in 2019. Over the long term, shipments are expected to reach 1.57 billion units in 2022.

China to revive slowly
China, which made up 30 percent of all smartphone shipments in 2017, will start showing signs of recovery. There will be a downturn of 8.8 percent this year, worse than in 2017, but 2019 will then be flat, before moving back to positive territory through 2022. The slow revival of China was one of the reasons for low growth in Q3 and this slowdown will continue into the first quarter of next year, after a slide of 3 percent in the fourth quarter. The recently lifted US ban on ZTE also had an impact on shipments in Q3, created a sizable gap that has yet to be filled heading into 2019.

The US, the world’s second largest market, will also return to growth in The recovery will also be supported by a shift toward snartphones with larger screens and by ultra-high-end devices.

Bigger screens
All major manufacturers have built out their portfolios with bigger screens and higher-end smartphones, including Apple’s new launch in September. In Q3, the 6-7 inch screen became the most prominent band for the first time with more than four times year-on-year growth. IDC believes that larger-screen smartphones (5.5 inches and above) will for the full year lead the charge with volumes at 947.1 million, and a market share of 66.7 percent among all smartphones, up from 623.3 million units and 42.5 percent share in 2017. By 2022, shipments of these larger-screen smartphones will move up to 1.38 billion units and 87.7 percent of overall shipment volume.

Android volumes seen up
Looking at operating system, Android’s smartphone share will remain stable at 85 percent throughout 2022. Volumes are expected to grow at a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.7 percent with shipments approaching 1.36 billion in 2022. Android average selling prices (ASPs) are estimated to lift 9.6 percent this year to USD 258, from 235 in 2017. IDC expects this upward trajectory to continue through 2022 but at a softened rate from 2019 and beyond.

Meanwhile, iOS smartphones are seen declining by 2.5 percent this year to 210.4 million. Prices went up on the back of more expensive and bigger screen iOS smartphones launched in Q3, but this also made it more difficult to increase shipments . IDC sees iPhone shipments rising at a CAGR of 0.1 percent, for volumes of 217.3 million in 2022. Still, Apple will continue to lead the global premium market segment.

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