Thrift Savings Plan

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My call has been that 2633 is the bottom (or near the bottom) of this correction. We have closed there twice and there were 2 previous times that closes were within ½% of the low. Two of the three tests were “successful” based on improvement in market data. Most notably, there was a 5 std-deviation positive swing in new-high new low data on the Wednesday before Thanksgiving and a nearly 4 std-deviation positive swing on Friday. Those swings in new-high/new-low data occur around bottoms (before or after).

There are two concerns. News can always Trump technicals and we may have had enough bad news to drive the market lower.

The other issue is that some of the signals occurred around the Holiday and that’s always suspect. We’ll see. For the time being, I remain fully invested because I got back in last Tuesday.

You can see my log at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/