I just now took a look at the SOS article. He did a detailed analysis and gave all his assumptions. He's no doubt correct that Xyosted will have negative cash flow for a while. But I think that he (and the company) are too conservative on the potential market for it, and how soon they will achieve it.
I can't imagine why anyone would use either of the existing therapies given the choice. Injections today require a trip to the doctor, and the gels are messy and risky to anyone the user comes in contact with. ATRS's product is easy to use, administered at home, and the user doesn't see the needle; it has consistent results; and is taken only once a week.
These aren't minor improvements. Xyosted is a major improvement over existing therapies. I understand that it won't happen immediately, but predicting 20% market share in 5 years is ridiculously cautious.
There might be initial reluctance by some users to use a needle if they are on the gel - and perhaps even the ones going to the doctor's office for an injection will be hesitant to self administer an injection. That's the only user adoption issue that I can see, and I think it will be overcome.
Obviously we'll know more when we start getting updates. But it's going to be a lot more than 20% in a lot less time than 5 years. Given my optimism over Xyosted, then adding in all the other products they have, some unannounced, to me that means ATRS is seriously undervalued.
I think the key for me is to be patient and let things unfold. "The watched pot never boils." Not sure how long it will take but ATRS is going over $10 and perhaps much more. And it won't take 5 years.
