Silver Futures Index $SILVER (SILVER)

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:::: NY Silver COMEX Futures Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | November 10, 2018

Analysis for the Week of November 12, 2018

OUR ANALYTICAL ANALYSIS AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. Nov. 9, 2018: NY Silver COMEX Futures closing today of 141400 immediately is trading down about 17% for the year from last year's closing of 171450. Thus far, we have been trading down for the past 5 days, while we have made a low at 140800 following the high established Fri. Nov. 2, 2018, this price action warns of at least a pause in trend if not a retest of key support. Only a close above 144260 would imply a retest of the previous high. We did penetrate the previous session's low and closed below that low. Nonetheless, the market remains quite bearish. (Note: We have included reference to Reversals and Short-Term timing considerations in this Summary Analysis, but please keep in mind this is a preview only - these references will be removed from Summary Analysis and moved to our higher levels of market analysis upon the upcoming launch of our expanded platform service.)

Our Benchmarks in the precious metals are coming into play with silver due ideally the week of 0/0 followed by the gold target due the week of 0/0. Up to now, we have been rallying in this market from the previous low made the week of June 24th at 12860 with a reaction low just made the week of January 1st testing support at 140800.

Taking a broader cyclical perspective, the view which provides a map to the future is particularly important. Our next yearly target in time for a turning point is 2019. However, we also have a directional change due in 2018, which warns we must be concerned about the price action this year. So far, we have made a new high this year warning that a year-end closing below 171450 would suggest that a correction into the next target due 2019 where we could then move into the opposite direction for the next target due in 2020 becomes possible. Closing higher will suggest we could still press higher into 2019. Our pivot point for the year is 764569 which we are trading below right now and the market needs to maintain this posture to keep this direction in play. Remember that the key indicator remains the Yearly Reversal System. The next Yearly Bullish Reversal stands at 309760. The next Yearly Bearish Reversal resides at 141540.

The historical major high took place back in 2011 and we have then witnessed a bearish subsequent trend for 6 years. The correction since that high has been a 27% decline with the next general key area to watch would be 341765 and a closing beneath that would technically imply a more correction process unfolding on a bit more sustain basis near-term. There was a subsequent correction low that formed during 2015 and we have bounced some 3.81% which has been a moderate rally to date. We have elected both long-term yearly buy signals during this bounce currently which suggests that a pause in the decline was warranted. This market on the yearly level has been consolidating since the high established during 2011 for the past 6 years with a subsequent low established during 2015 at 136200.

Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 249128 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Relying on our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 148760 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 141300. This provides a 5.01% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 173600 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 141000. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 18%. Immediately, we closed the last session trading at the 141400, which is below this level on a daily closing basis at this moment. We need to close above this on a weekly basis to signal a rally is unfolding. Right now, the market is trading some 4.94% beneath that level.

A possible change in trend appears due come December in NY Silver COMEX Futures so be focused. The last cyclical event was a low established back during September. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a reaction high. However, the market has made a rebound to the upside so we could see a potential reaction high at that time frame. Last month produced a high at 149500 but closed on the weak side and so far, we have broken beneath last month's low 142400 closing yesterday at 141400. We now need to close beneath 143150 on a monthly basis to imply a technical reversal of trend to the downside for now. Since we are trading below that level, caution is advisable.

The Daily level of this market is currently in a full bearish immediate tone with resistance at 149200. To date, this decline has been down forfive daily sessions.

On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of September 10th at 139650, which was down 21 weeks from the high made back during the week of April 16th. We have seen the market drop sharply for the past week penetrating the previous week's low and it closed beneath that low which was 142400. This was a very bearish technical indicator warning that we have a shift in the immediate trend. We are trading below the Weekly Momentum Indicators warning that the decline is very significant and we need to pay attention to the timing and reversals.

At this moment, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. We can see this market has been down for the past week. The last high on the weekly level was 149500, which was created during the week of October 1st. The previous weekly level low was 139650, which formed during the week of September 10th. However, we still remain above key support 139650 on a closing basis.

Some caution is necessary since the last high 182900 was important given we did obtain four sell signals from that event established during September 2017. That high was still lower than the previous high established at 186550 back during April 2017. This warns that the trend is weak moving forward. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak trading beneath last month's low. Critical resistance still stands in this market at 173600 and a break above that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a continued advance becomes possible.

Taking a broader view, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. Eyeing the direction of this trend, we had been moving down for 12 months. Subsequently, the market has consolidated for the past session. The last high on the monthly level was 182900, which was created during September 2017. The previous monthly level low was 139650, which formed during September, and only a break of 139650 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. We have generated a sell signal, so some caution is required.

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