Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[hamkypamky]

hamky, wouldn't you say it's likely tied to hard MACE and in particular CVD death come November 12th? I expect CVD death RRR over 30%. I don't think the market expects that.

It's one thing to say the market "expects" this or that, but think of this like an impartial investor.

Where is the "pop" going to come from?

Normally pops like this are from a major player purchasing a very large stake, or from short covering.

Short covering will be minimal - days to cover is 0.4 and % of float short is at an all time low.

A major player won't buy in immediately post the AHA announcement.

There could be more retail purchasers, based on good news (if the results are good enough that they're announced in mass media outlets like NYT etc) but retail investors alone won't be sufficient to drive a major 100% pop in the PPS like some are dreaming of (waking up and the share price goes from $25 - $50).

The market isn't pessimistic / bearish (no shorts).
Rather, it's skeptical of the potential of Amarin, and that skepticism can only be allayed by actual profits (not paper potential like some believe).