Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[hamkypamky]

As a result, my M&A bet will be with AMGN (same as AF's prediction in an earlier STAT+ article) since AMGN can afford to pay the most. REGN is too small to pull off the merger despite a higher valuation than AMGN. It requires the company to execute a merger of equal with AMRN which is unlikely.

What price do you think the buyout / merger will be at?

Say BO would be at a valuation of $20B, which fully diluted puts it at $54 a share. That's far below the price prediction of most on here.

That $20B isn't created out of thin air - if we assume it's 100% funded by stock, it means AMGN would have to dilute by about 1/6th to buyout AMRN. Either that, or dip into their cash pile and reduce it by 1/3rd (which would also reduce enterprise value).

Have a higher BO target, and that feasibility drops even further: $100/sh or $37B would probably be very very difficult for the Amgen shareholders to accept. Would you accept AMRN diluting you as a shareholder by 30%?