Sunday, October 21, 2018 9:44:05 AM
the smart play or the big money play was to sell and then buy back after the merger is complete. since it wasn’t a buyout there is no set price. I was thinking that the price would hold because it was moving to trade at assumed multiple of the new company. assumed is the key word there. So big money figured they sell and see where the price was after the merger, it wasn’t going to go much higher, and the stocks ended up trading back to their individual valuation, because of perceived execution risk or whatever. A good play would be buy some may calls.
As far as the stock analysts px targets go, the buy side didn't take into account this trade that was probably thought up by a clever sell side analyst, with no regard for retail clients or the buy side. Since the buy side and sell side can't share info, stuff like this happens once in awhile. If they don't mess up the merger somehow it will return to the buy side targets soon after, the merger is completed, when they all go to buy the stock back. This kinda stuff seems border line unethical, but remember this is wall street, not sesame street.
background article
https://www8.gsb.columbia.edu/leadership/newsn/631/how-high-the-firewall-separating-investment-banking-from-research
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