S&P 500 & Nasdaq Analysis and Trends

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NASDAQ Composite Index Cash Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | October 20, 2018

Analysis for the Week of October 22, 2018

THE ANALYSIS PER THE CLOSE OF Fri. Oct. 19, 2018: NASDAQ Composite Index Cash closed today at 744902 and is trading up about 7.90% for the year from last year's closing of 690339. Thus far, we have been trading down for the past 2 days, while we have made a low at 742829 following the high established Wed. Oct. 17, 2018, this price action warns of at least a pause in trend if not a retest of key support. Only a close above 758289 would imply a retest of the previous high. We did penetrate the previous session's low and closed below that low. Nonetheless, the market remains rather weak. (Note: We have included reference to Reversals and Short-Term timing considerations in this Summary Analysis, but please keep in mind this is a preview only - these references will be removed from Summary Analysis and moved to our higher levels of market analysis upon the upcoming launch of our expanded platform service.)

From a cyclical perspective, the broader view which provides a map to the future is most interesting. and since we have made a new high. This warns that a year-end closing below 690339 would suggest that a correction into the next target due 2022 becomes possible.

During this year, we have exceeded last year's high which formed the new historical major high to date and we have been in a bull market for a very extended period of 44 years. The last major cyclical low took place in 2002 from which we have witnessed a 16 year broader-term rally. On the shorter-term perspective, the last minor cyclical low took place in 2016 from which we have experienced a 2 year rally. This market on the yearly level has been making new highs since the last low established 1 year ago which has been a series of successive advances. The last 4 highs have been progressively making higher highs implying we have a bullish market in motion for the past 0. We have not elected any Bullish Reversals thus far.

Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 864342 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Looking at our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 780670 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 744300. This provides a 4.65% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 946065 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 680595. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 28%. Immediately, we closed the last session trading at the 744902, which is below this level on a daily closing basis at this moment. We need to close above this on a weekly basis to signal a rally is unfolding. Right now, the market is trading some 4.58% beneath that level.

A possible change in trend appears due come November in NASDAQ Composite Index Cash so be focused. The last cyclical event was a high established back during August. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a low. However, the market has been neutral for right now so caution is advisable. Watch the short-term trading levels for a hint of the next directional move into that target time frame. Last month produced a neutral inside trading range from the previous month but closed on the positive side. At this time, we have exceeded last month's high yet we have been unable to maintain a closing above 810407 suggesting the market is still weak. We have now broken beneath last month's low of 787393 and we are trading below that level at this time. A month-end closing under that number will signal a further decline ahead. We now need to close above 810407 on a monthly basis to imply a technical reversal of trend to the upside for now.

Our Daily level momentum is bullish while the trend indicator is bearish providing a mixed short-term posture for the market. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend and cyclical strength indicators are both bearish reflecting resistance forming at 740007.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of August 27th at 813330, which was up 53 weeks from the low made back during the week of August 21st of 2017. We have been generally trading up for the past week from the low of the week of October 8th, which has been a move of.0508%. Distinctly, we have elected one Weekly buy signal to date.

At this moment, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. On the subject of the direction of this trend, we had been moving down for 6 weeks. Subsequently, the market has consolidated for the past session. The last high on the weekly level was 813330, which was created during the week of August 27th. The previous weekly level low was 727404, which formed during the week of October 8th, and only a break of 727404 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. However, we still remain below key support and key resistance now stands at 760424 above the market.

Critical support still underlies this market at 680595 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength. On a broader perspective, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 31 months. The previous monthly level low was 420976, which formed during February 2016, and only a break of 765952 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. The last high on the monthly level was 813330, which was created during August. We have generated a buy signal so some caution is required.

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