S&P 500 & Nasdaq Analysis and Trends

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:::: NASDAQ Composite Index Cash Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | October 13, 2018

Analysis for the Week of October 15, 2018

ANALYSIS AS OF THE CLOSE Fri. Oct. 12, 2018: NASDAQ Composite Index Cash closed today at 749689 and is trading up about 8.59% for the year from last year's closing of 690339. So far, we have been trading up for the past day since the low made on Thu. Oct. 11, 2018. We did close above the previous session's high and the market remains quite bearish. (Note: We have included reference to Reversals and Short-Term timing considerations in this Summary Analysis, but please keep in mind this is a preview only - these references will be removed from Summary Analysis and moved to our higher levels of market analysis upon the upcoming launch of our expanded platform service.)

The broader view on a cyclical model, provides us with a map to the future that is rather interesting. and since we have made a new high. This warns that a year-end closing below 690339 would suggest that a correction into the next target due 2022 becomes possible.

During this year, we have exceeded last year's high which formed the new historical major high to date and we have been in a bull market for a very extended period of 44 years. The last major cyclical low took place in 2002 from which we have witnessed a 16 year broader-term rally. On the shorter-term perspective, the last minor cyclical low took place in 2016 from which we have experienced a 2 year rally. This market on the yearly level has been making new highs since the last low established 1 year ago which has been a series of successive advances. The last 4 highs have been progressively making higher highs implying we have a bullish market in motion for the past 0. We have not elected any Bullish Reversals thus far.

Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 864342 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Utilizing our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 882360 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 744300. This provides a 15% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 946065 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 680595. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 28%. Immediately, we closed the last session trading at the 749689, which is below this level on a daily closing basis at this moment. We need to close above this on a weekly basis to signal a rally is unfolding. Right now, the market is trading some 15% beneath that level.

A possible change in trend appears due come November in NASDAQ Composite Index Cash so be focused. The last cyclical event was a high established back during August. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a low. However, the market has been neutral for right now so caution is advisable. Watch the short-term trading levels for a hint of the next directional move into that target time frame. Last month produced a neutral inside trading range from the previous month but closed on the positive side. At this time, we have exceeded last month's high yet we have been unable to maintain a closing above 810407 suggesting the market is still weak. We have now broken beneath last month's low of 787393 and we are trading below that level at this time. A month-end closing under that number will signal a further decline ahead. We now need to close above 810407 on a monthly basis to imply a technical reversal of trend to the upside for now.

The Daily level of this market is currently in a full bearish immediate tone with resistance at 805415.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of August 27th at 813330, which was up 53 weeks from the low made back during the week of August 21st of 2017. We have been generally trading down for the past 6 weeks, which has been a significant move of .1056%.

Immediately, this decline from the last high established the week of August 27th has been important closing sharply lower as well. Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 793331 made back during the week of July 23rd. That high was likewise part of a bullish trend making higher highs over the the week of June 18th. This immediate decline has so far held the previous low formed at 617719 made the week of August 21st. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. . Right now, the market is below momentum on our weekly models casting a bearish cloud over the price action. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 1 week overall.

At this moment, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. Honing in on the direction of this trend, we had been moving down for-2482 weeks. Subsequently, the market has consolidated for the past 2488 sessions. The last high on the weekly level was 813330, which was created during the week of August 27th. The previous weekly level low was 663067, which formed during the week of February 5th. However, we still remain below key support and key resistance now stands at 760424 above the market.

Critical support still underlies this market at 680595 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength. On a broader perspective, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 31 months. The previous monthly level low was 420976, which formed during February 2016, and only a break of 765952 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. The last high on the monthly level was 813330, which was created during August. We have generated a buy signal so some caution is required.

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