:::: NY Crude Oil Futures Summary Analysis By: Marty Armstrong | September 8, 2018
Analysis for the Week of September 10, 2018
OUR ANALYTICAL ANALYSIS AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. Sep. 7, 2018: NY Crude Oil Futures closed today at 6775 and is trading up about 12% for the year from last year's closing of 6042. Thus far, we have been trading down for the past 3 days, while we have made a low at 6686 following the high established Tue. Sep. 4, 2018, this price action warns of at least a pause in trend if not a retest of key support. Only a close above 6809 would imply a retest of the previous high. We did penetrate the previous session's low and closed lower. Nonetheless, the market remains rather weak. (Note: We have included reference to Reversals and Short-Term timing considerations in this Summary Analysis, but please keep in mind this is a preview only - these references will be removed from Summary Analysis and moved to our higher levels of market analysis upon the upcoming launch of our expanded platform service.)
Turning to the broader cyclical outlook, the map of the future is certainly interesting. Our next yearly target in time for a turning point is 2020. However, we also have a directional change due in 2018, which warns we must be concerned about the price action this year. So far, we have made a new high this year warning that a year-end closing below 6042 would suggest that a correction into the next target due 2020 where we could then move into the opposite direction for the next target due in 2021 becomes possible. Closing higher will suggest we could still press higher into 2020. Our pivot point for the year is 764569 which we are trading below right now and the market needs to maintain this posture to keep this direction in play. Remember that the key indicator remains the Yearly Reversal System. The next Yearly Bullish Reversal stands at 9270. The next Yearly Bearish Reversal resides at 5243.
The historical major high took place back in 2008 and we have then witnessed a bearish subsequent trend for 9 years. The correction since that high has been a 17% decline with the next general key area to watch would be 10102 and a closing beneath that would technically imply a more correction process unfolding on a bit more sustain basis near-term. There was a subsequent correction low that formed during 2016 and we have bounced some 160% which has been a very strong rally to date. We have elected both long-term yearly buy signals during this bounce currently which suggests that a pause in the decline was warranted.
Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 6821 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Making use of our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 6993 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 6421. This provides a 8.17% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 7300 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 5994. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 17%. Immediately, we closed the last session trading at the 6775, which is below this level on a daily closing basis at this moment. We need to close above this on a weekly basis to signal a rally is unfolding. Right now, the market is trading some 3.11% beneath that level.
A possible change in trend appears due come February 2019 in NY Crude Oil Futures so be focused. The last cyclical event was a low established back during August. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a reaction high. However, the market has made a rebound to the upside so we could see a potential reaction high at that time frame. Last month produced a low at 6443 but closed on the positive side and so far, we have exceeded last month's high. We now need to close above 7446 at month-end to imply a technical reversal of trend to the upside for now.
Our Daily level momentum and trend indicators are both bearish reflecting resistance forming at 6815. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend is neutral while the cyclical strength indicator is bearish providing a mixed perspective of the market beyond the short-term.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of July 2nd at 7527, which was up 54 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 19th of 2017. We have been generally trading up for the past 3 weeks from the low of the week of August 13th, which has been a move of.1019%. On the other hand, we have elected one Weekly buy signal to date.
Generally, this market is in an uptrend position on all our weekly indicators for the near-term trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 11 weeks. The previous weekly level low was 6340, which formed during the week of June 18th. The last high on the weekly level was 7527, which was created during the week of July 2nd.
Critical support still underlies this market at 5994 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength. Overall on a broader basis, looking at the monthly level on our models, this market is currently in a rising trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 30 months. The previous monthly level low was 2605, which formed during February 2016, and only a break of 6629 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. The last high on the monthly level was 7527, which was created during July. However, we still remain below key resistance 6955 on a closing basis.
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