NY Crude Oil Futures Summary Analysis By: Marty Armstrong | July 28, 2018
Analysis for the Week of July 30, 2018
OUR ANALYTICAL ANALYSIS AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. Jul. 27, 2018: NY Crude Oil Futures closed today at 6869 and is trading up about 13% for the year from last year's closing of 6042. Thus far, we have been trading down for the past day, following the high established Thu. Jul. 26, 2018. We did penetrate the previous session's low and closed below that low creating an outside reversal to the downside. Nonetheless, the market remains rather weak. (Note: We have included reference to Reversals and Short-Term timing considerations in this Summary Analysis, but please keep in mind this is a preview only - these references will be removed from Summary Analysis and moved to our higher levels of market analysis upon the upcoming launch of our expanded platform service.)
The historical major high took place back in 2008 and we have then witnessed a bearish subsequent trend for 9 years. The correction since that high has been a 17% decline with the next general key area to watch would be 10102 and a closing beneath that would technically imply a more correction process unfolding on a bit more sustain basis near-term. There was a subsequent correction low that formed during 2016 and we have bounced some 163% which has been a very strong rally to date. We have elected both long-term yearly buy signals during this bounce currently which suggests that a pause in the decline was warranted.
Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 6821 which we have already exceeded and are currently trading above this level warning some strength has resurfaced in this market. This level can now offer technical support during any attempt to fall back in this market. Relying on our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 8289 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 6741. This provides a 18% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 8898 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 5994. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 32%. Immediately, we closed the last session trading at the 6869, which is below this level on a daily closing basis at this moment. We need to close above this on a weekly basis to signal a rally is unfolding. Right now, the market is trading some 17% beneath that level.
A possible change in trend appears due come August in NY Crude Oil Futures so be focused. The last cyclical event was a high established back during June. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a low. However, the market has move to the downside so we could see a potential reaction low at that time frame. Last month produced a low at 6340 but closed on the positive side and we need to penetrate that level on a monthly closing basis to suggest perhaps a further decline.
Our Daily level momentum is bullish while the trend indicator is neutral providing a mixed short-term posture for the market. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend is bearish while the cyclical strength indicator is neutral providing a mixed perspective of the market beyond the short-term.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of July 2nd at 7527, which was up 54 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 19th of 2017. We have been generally trading down to sideways for the past 3 weeks, which has been a significant move of .1024%.
Immediately, this decline from the last high established the week of July 2nd has been important closing sharply lower as well. Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 7290 made back during the week of May 21st. That high was likewise part of a bullish trend making higher highs over the the week of April 16th. This immediate decline has so far held the previous low formed at 4205 made the week of June 19th. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. . Right now, the market is below momentum on our weekly models casting a bearish cloud over the price action as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. From a pointed viewpoint, this market has been trading down for the past 3 weeks and it finished in a weak position right now warning we need to pay attention.
At this moment, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. Honing in on the direction of this trend, we had been moving down for-1840 weeks. Subsequently, the market has consolidated for the past 1843 sessions. The last high on the weekly level was 7527, which was created during the week of July 2nd. The previous weekly level low was 6340, which formed during the week of June 18th, and only a break of 6629 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. However, we still remain above key support 6429 on a closing basis.
Critical support still underlies this market at 5994 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position. On a broader perspective, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 28 months. The previous monthly level low was 2605, which formed during February 2016, and only a break of 6580 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. The last high on the monthly level was 7446, which was created during June.
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