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Re: Scrapiron post# 1418

Friday, 07/13/2018 11:02:11 PM

Friday, July 13, 2018 11:02:11 PM

Post# of 3845
No prob! Some here and on other boards have been discussing a potential capital raise after RHB-104 data is announced. While I still think that's a strong likelihood, RedHill is ripe for some kind of licensing deal. In Edison's March 2018 analysis, they assume that RedHill will license out Bekinda for IBS-D (just finished P2) for $300M ($53M up front and $249M in milestones). Again, that is 2018. Before the end of the year. Obviously that would be a great surprise if it happened and would alleviate the need for a raise. Bekinda IBS-D makes more sense than Talicia since they don't intend to develop it in house, and qwitht he cash can take their time to develop their blockbuster drugs. Incidentally, they also assume Yeliva will be out-licensing in two separate deals worth $1B in 2020.

www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/?ACT=18&ID=20716&LANG=


Bekinda - Ph II-IBS-D

Licensing deal in 2018 after the ongoing Ph II; $53m upfront, $249m in milestones (average of two deals in IBS area over past five years)

? Target population of c 1.2 million: population prevalence of around 11%; around 30% of all patients will consult a doctor, around half will have IBS-D. Assumed that severe patients (10%) will be most accessible to BEKINDA.
Assumed 10% penetration due to highly fragmented market with branded and generic drugs.
? Pricing*: $1,260 on average per eight-week treatment, implies 50% premium to generic orally disintegrating ondansetron (only half dose as in gastritis case). Peak sales reached in seven years.
? R&D cost estimate: $4.4m for remainder Phase II (full top-line results in mid-2017), then out-licensed
? Rights: see above for licensing information. Last patent expiry date 2035
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