It's been awhile..
Glad to see you all have reaped good returns from a rather performant name as of late. Good on you and all that stuff. That said, I'll provide a few cents worth of my insight (not that my take is oftentimes worth even that much):
1) Immaterial changes in short interest are not good barometers for short-term price action. Don't read into it too much. Remember, if it were that easy, everyone (or at least institutions) would do it and it'd get arb'd out in no time.
2) Don't underestimate the value of indexing flow. Sure, the analysts have all revised upwards and all that jazz; but a non-insignificant portion (intentional double negative) of this move above (**don't quote me on this figure b/c I'm pulling it from memory and don't have my model in front of me**) $13.50 should be attributed to inclusion in relevant indices. While I've not read anything specific, I'm sure this has floated around the boards.
3) In my opinion, volume forecasts are far more important their price counterparts right now. I won't dig into this too much.
4) Strong numbers need to be read out for Q2. This price feels incredibly top-like and heavy, so if my analysis of the serviced market(s) was (were) giving me anything close to a red flag, I'd be extremely cautious.
Anyway -- like I said, take it for what it's worth. It's been a great few months since I pitched the name to a group ~20 institutions on Friday, Apr. 20 in Miami. It's sure made me look good, but I'm not sitting comfortably up here. There's still a significant amount of work to be done before this thing is even remotely close to being held in the drawer.
Also, as an auxiliary point of advice for those who dabble in financial markets at the retail level: Before you chalk something up as a 'win,' make sure you understand whether you were right for the right reasons. It's very easy to be right, but for the wrong reasons. Unfortunately, that will hurt you over time.
