S&P 500 & Nasdaq Analysis and Trends

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NASDAQ Composite Index Cash Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | June 30, 2018

Analysis for the Week of July 2, 2018

THE ANALYSIS PERSPECTIVE AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. Jun. 29, 2018: NASDAQ Composite Index Cash closed today at 751030 and is trading up about 8.79% for the year from last year's closing of 690339. So far, we have been trading up for the past day since the reaction low made on Thu. Jun. 28, 2018. We did exceed the previous session's high and closed higher. Nonetheless, the market remains quite weak. Employing our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 755739 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 732096. This provides a 3.12% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 879041 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 648413. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 26%.

From a broad long-term perspective, the last important event was a high established during 2017, which was a rally from the low made back in 2016 amounting to a one year Knee Jerk Reaction.

A possible change in trend appears due come this month in NASDAQ Composite Index Cash so be focused. The last cyclical event was a low established back during April. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a reaction high. However, so far this market has already broken that previous low established at 680596. This strongly implies we are in a cycle inversion process, which tends to be rather bearish overall. Last month produced a high at 749242 but closed on the positive side during May. We have now to exceed that level during June implying a continued advance was warranted. Support technically lies now at 699114 and a breach of that level will warn of a retest of key support down at 692408 becomes possible.

Observing the near-term level, the market has closed up 63.9% from the last cycle low established during 2016, which has been only a 1 year rally from that event. However, from the long-term perspective, the market has still closed on the Yearly level up 522.7% from the strategic low established in 2002, which has been a 15 year rally from that key event.

Our Daily level momentum is bullish while the trend indicator is bearish providing a mixed short-term posture for the market. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend is bearish while the cyclical strength indicator is bullish providing a mixed perspective of the market beyond the short-term.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of June 18th at 780660, which was up 43 weeks from the low made back during the week of August 21st. We have seen the market drop sharply for the past week penetrating the previous week's low and it closed beneath that low which was 763573. This was a very bearish technical indicator warning that we have a shift in the immediate trend. We are still trading neutral on the Weekly Momentum Indicators and this is a warning that initial support has been breached. This strongly implies we should pay close attention now to the Weekly Bearish Reversals. If we begin to elect Weekly Bearish Reversals, then we are dealing with a more sustainable near-term correction.

Generally, this market is in an uptrend position on all our weekly indicators for the near-term trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 20 weeks. The last weekly level low was 663067, which formed during the week of February 5th. The last high on the weekly level was 780660, which was created during the week of June 18th.

Critical support still underlies this market at 648413 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Overall on a broader basis, looking at the monthly level on our models, this market is currently in a rising trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 27 months. The last monthly level low was 420976, which formed during February 2016, and only a break of 680596 on a closing basis would signal serious weakness ahead. The last high on the monthly level was 763727, which was created during March. We have generated a buy signal so some caution is required.

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