Zion Oil & Gas Inc (ZNOG)

[JRyan]

* Zion Oil * // Possible Pricing // Data // Sticky




All of this is on the premise that Zion Oil and Gas has found Oil, I can not guess very well if the find is Natural gas but a good idea would be 1/8th of the Oil size. I have read 1/6th so I will use 1/8th to be conservative.

I use a find of 1 Billion barrels in my calculations for the most part.

First we look at how other companies are valued. There are many things like cost of the barrel out of the ground. It will be almost impossible to get these values right for many reasons, but most of all is it is in Israel, not Texas. Laws are different and especially the environmental ones, as heard from the shareholders meeting.

I can not get the original URL to work - so cut and paste. This is good to have and is around 1MB, so as not to large.

http://www.ey.com/Publication/vwLUAssets/ey-us-oil-and-gas-reserves-study-2017/$FILE/ey-us-oil-and-gas-reserves-study-2017.pdf

Or try this link:

US oil and gas reserves study 2017


The original Post with this information was here:

Valuation and Reserves - Hard Data IHub Post

The above link provides links and estimations of possible outcomes. Using the data found there, I came up with this: Even if 1/2 off in my estimation, that would still be a share price in excess of $100, depending on shares outstanding. Again, this is for a 1 Billion barrel find, which is what we believe we will need to make Israel energy independent, which is one of the founding reasons for Zion Oil and Gas from day one.

I will look at two companies, Occidental Petroleum and Pioneer Natural Resources..

Pioneer Natural Resources
Reserves = 1.265 Billion
Production Costs = $10 a barrel
Market Cap = $33 Billion

Occidental Petroleum
Reserves = 1.045 Billion
Production Costs = $16.50 a barrel
Market Cap = $65 Billion

So using those numbers , Lets say 1 Billion barrels...

ZION = (ESTIMATED ONLY)
Reserves = 1.0 Billion
Production Costs = $20 a barrel (In Israel so a guess)
Market Cap = $45 Billion ( in between the two )

Share price at 60 Million shares = $750
Share price at 200 Million shares = $225

That was one method, another was good ol Excel and some good information and maybe good guesswork. I know I have posted many screenshots, but I thought I would let you modify it or add to it if you like. I was apprehensive about uploading an excel file but I see no other way. Please use your AV to check it, it is clean as far as I know as I just modified my original and uploaded it.






With this one can see that even a 50 million barrel field will make be a winner!!



LINK


Excel file : Zion Oil Calculation XLS



The important thing and I do not want to leave this out even though I think it highly unlikely, but with Him in charge all things are possible. What if it is larger, VERY much larger?

Here you will get an idea of what the big boys are, these are the companies with billions of barrels of reserves. Note: this is not tens of billions as that becomes nation size. Examples being Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, & Norway for just a few.





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With Zion quiet now, I seem to remember that the last wells were not like this. I know nothing more, just a hunch I guess. Its the little things that grab me now..

Like this: Why post this? If one cannot say anything for what ever reason, I think there was a message here.




Being realistic and the engineer in me talking, what if the HOLE is dry?

Zion's shares drop quiet low, guessing near the dollar level. Then they will try and raise more capital and drill again. I will most likely not be a part of that one except for my original 100 shares. I am not negative per se but I do feel the bite of no news when that was not the way I seem to remember it in the past. That being said, I am not worried about it as I do think they have crude oil now. That is why I have 4X the shares I have ever had. That is my gut...