NY Crude Oil Futures Summary Analysis By: Marty Armstrong | May 26, 2018
Analysis for the Week of May 28, 2018
OUR ANALYTICAL OPINION AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. May. 25, 2018: NY Crude Oil Futures closed today at 6788 and is trading up about 12% for the year from last year's closing of 6042. Thus far, we have been trading down for the past 3 days, while we have made a low at 6742 following the high established Tue. May. 22, 2018, this price action warns of at least a pause in trend if not a retest of key support. Only a close above 7090 would imply a retest of the previous high. Looking at our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 7896 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 6684. This provides a 15% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 6955 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 6000. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 13%.
The last event was a low established during 2016.
A possible change in trend appears due come this month in NY Crude Oil Futures so be focused. Last month produced a high at 6955 and so far, we have exceeded last month's high. We now need to close above 6955 on a monthly basis to imply a further advance to the upside immediately for now. The projected resistance for this week stands at 7491 and we need to close above this level on a weekly basis to maintain any upward momentum.
At this time, the market has closed on the Yearly level up 131.9% from the strategic low established during 2016, which has been a 1 year rally from that event.
Regarding the near-term level, the market has closed down 14% from the last cycle high established during 2017, which has been only a move from last year. Now turning to the long-term perspective, the market has closed on the Yearly level down 58.9% from the strategic high established during 2008, which has been a 9 year move.
Our Daily level momentum and trend indicators are both bearish reflecting resistance forming at 7136. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend is bearish while the cyclical strength indicator is neutral providing a mixed perspective of the market beyond the short-term.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of May 21st at 7290, which was up 48 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 19th. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 7290 to 6742. Nevertheless, the market is still trading downward more toward support than resistance. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of May 21st reaching 7290 has exceeded the previous high of 6955 made back during the week of April 16th. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 6685. Additional support is to be found at 6193. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 15 weeks overall.
Overall, looking at the weekly level on our models, this market has been in a rising trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 48 weeks. The last weekly level low was 4205, which formed during the week of June 19th. That is critical technical support and a breach of that low would warn of the potential shift in near-term trend. The last high on the weekly level was 7290, which was created during the week of May 21st, and has now been exceeded in the recent rally. However, we still remain below key resistance 6997 on a closing basis.
Critical support still underlies this market at 6000 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength. On a broader perspective, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 26 months. The last monthly level low was 2605, which formed during February 2016, and only a break of 5995 on a closing basis would signal serious correction ahead. The last high on the monthly level was 6955, which was created during April, and has now been exceeded in the recent rally.
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