NY Crude Oil Futures Summary Analysis By: Marty Armstrong | May 20, 2018
Analysis for the Week of May 21, 2018
WRITTEN OPINION AS OF THE CLOSE Fri. May. 18, 2018: NY Crude Oil Futures closed today at 7128 and is trading up about 17% for the year from last year's closing of 6042. Thus far, we have been trading down for the past day, following the high established Thu. May. 17, 2018. Utilizing our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 7750 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 6710. This provides a 13% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 7910 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 6000. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 24%.
The last event was a low established during 2016.
A possible change in trend appears due come this month in NY Crude Oil Futures so be focused. Last month produced a high at 6955 and so far, we have exceeded last month's high. We now need to close above 6955 on a monthly basis to imply a further advance to the upside immediately for now. The projected resistance for this week stands at 7502 and we need to close above this level on a weekly basis to maintain any upward momentum.
At this time, the market has closed on the Yearly level up 131.9% from the strategic low established during 2016, which has been a 1 year rally from that event.
Viewing the near-term level, the market has closed down 14% from the last cycle high established during 2017, which has been only a move from last year. Flipping to the long-term perspective, the market has closed on the Yearly level down 58.9% from the strategic high established during 2008, which has been a 9 year move.
Our Daily level momentum is bullish while the trend indicator is neutral providing a mixed short-term posture for the market. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend and cyclical strength indicators are both bullish 7042.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of May 14th at 7230, which was up 14 weeks from the low made back during the week of February 5th. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 7230 to 7026. Nevertheless, the market is still trading upward more toward resistance than support. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of May 14th reaching 7230 has exceeded the previous high of 6424 made back during the week of February 26th. Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 14 weeks overall.
Currently, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 47 weeks. The last weekly level low was 4205, which formed during the week of June 19th, and only a break of 6763 on a closing basis would signal serious correction ahead. The last high on the weekly level was 7230, which was created during the week of May 14th, and has now been exceeded in the recent rally.
Critical support still underlies this market at 6000 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength. On a broader perspective, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 26 months. The last monthly level low was 2605, which formed during February 2016, and only a break of 5995 on a closing basis would signal serious correction ahead. The last high on the monthly level was 6955, which was created during April, and has now been exceeded in the recent rally.
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