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:::: S&P 500 Index Cash Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | May 20, 2018

Analysis for the Week of May 21, 2018

WRITTEN OPINION AS OF THE CLOSE Fri. May. 18, 2018: S&P 500 Cash Index closed today at 271297 and is trading up about 1.47% for the year from last year's closing of 267361. Thus far, we have been trading down for the past 4 days, while we have made a low at 270191, consolidating thereafter for 3 days following the high established Mon. May. 14, 2018. Applying our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 276340 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 257823. This provides a 6.70% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 329920 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 244654. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 25%.

The last event was a low established during 2016.

A possible change in trend appears due come this month in S&P 500 Cash Index so be focused. Last month produced a low at 255380 and so far, we have exceeded last month's high. We now need to close above 287287 at month-end to imply a technical reversal of trend to the upside for now.

Focusing on the near-term level, the market has closed up 47.7% from the last cycle low established during 2016, which has been only a 1 year rally from that event. Concentrating on the long-term perspective, the market has still closed on the Yearly level up 4286.5% from the strategic low established during 1974, which has been a 43 year rally from that key event.

Our Daily level momentum is bearish while the trend indicator is bullish providing a mixed short-term posture for the market. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend is bullish while the cyclical strength indicator is neutral providing a mixed perspective of the market beyond the short-term.

On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of February 5th at 253269, which was down 2 weeks from the high made back during the week of January 22nd. We have been generally trading up for the past 6 weeks from the low of the week of April 2nd, which has been a move of.0704 percent.

At this moment, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. Directing our attention to the direction of this trend, we have been moving down for the past 9 weeks. The last high on the weekly level was 280190, which was created during the week of March 12th. The last weekly level low was 253269, which formed during the week of February 5th, and only a break of 265520 on a closing basis would signal serious correction ahead. However, we still remain above key support 262245 on a closing basis.

Critical support still underlies this market at 244654 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength. Overall on a broader basis, looking at the monthly level on our models, this market has been in a rising trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 26 months. The last monthly level low was 181010, which formed during February 2016, and only a break of 258589 on a closing basis would signal serious correction ahead. The last high on the monthly level was 287287, which was created during January.

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