Pretty good call overall, management optimistic without setting unrealistic expectations. That was a major issue with Nelson where he went beyond normal optimism and would make or allude to things he knew would not happen in order to pump the stock for Greg Boden to sell on what I believe was material inside information.
Very detailed explanations of the issues they have and how they are adjusting to t hem. However, things will need to go near flawlessly for them to make it in the long run though since there probably won't be another lifeline like they got with this loan. I think it's worth giving them a chance, but there is still a very high risk of stockholders being wiped out unfortunately. If this team had been in back in 2015 or 2016 before lyin' Jim Nelson and his fraudster pals looted the company, chances would be much better.
I've been going through some older information / statements and this stuff they are saying about taking low margin contracts intentionally seems to directly contradict statements from the previous crew. In fact it seems the previous management made some pretty solid statements that margins would be in the upper 20s.
Balance sheet is obviously pretty bad, which is why the loan was absolutely necessary to give them a chance to fully implement the new program.
Whether or not the price goes down depends on how expectations for this ER differed from what happened. The company isn't at fault here, as they did say several times this quarter wasn't something to get excited about, but expectations might have been high anyways.
The promise not to dilute at these levels, or with the warrants, is essential to preserve any chance for long term shareholders to be rewarded as well. Too bad for those who invested in the warrants, since that promise likely just sealed the fate for those who bought those. Their only hope was a dilutive capital raise to reset the conversion price.
TLDR: Things are getting better, but it might (hopefully not) be too late to matter.
