I guess it is all in the eyes of the beholder. I am beginning to think that a 6% unemployment rate is the new norm instead of 5%. Increased Productivity may mean that some of the jobs lost are not going to return. I especially think this is true for the manufacturing sector, which was the hardest hit in regards to job losses. More efficient means of manufacturing and cheap overseas labor have resulted in what I believe to be permanent job losses. This being the case, one could look at the economic indicators and say that we are in a true bull market. The unemployment numbers, which are a lagging indicator, are the reason most analysts are not ready to believe in a full bull. If you were to suppose that 6% unemployment is the new norm, I think that you would have to say that the economy looks pretty darned good.
